Numancia v Oviedo

3–3aet, 4–2 pens9th

17:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Numancia		Oviedo
—	Shots	—
—	Shots on target	—
—	Corners	—
—	Fouls	—
5	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
—	Offsides	—
—	Passes	—
—	Possession %	—
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 53%
Over 3.5: 31%
Both score: 57%

Model pick: Numancia 38%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.43 – 1.37

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Numancia	38.1%	2.62	4.10 Dafabet	24.4%	+13.7
Match result	Draw	26.4%	3.78	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	-1.3
Match result	Oviedo	35.4%	2.82	2.15 Bet365	46.5%	-11.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	77.5%	1.29	1.38 BetVictor	72.5%	+5.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.5%	4.45	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-9.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	53.1%	1.88	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	+7.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	46.9%	2.13	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-13.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	30.9%	3.24	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	+6.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	69.1%	1.45	1.25 Betfair	80.0%	-10.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.4%	1.74	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	+7.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.6%	2.35	1.90 Betfair	52.6%	-10.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Numancia v Oviedo: too close to call

Our model makes Numancia 38% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 26% and Oviedo at 35%. The goal projection is 1.43 for Numancia against 1.37 for Oviedo — almost nothing to Numancia on expected output. A combined 2.80 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 8%; 0-1 8%

This season

Season records for Numancia and Oviedo
Numancia		Oviedo
1	Played	13
0-1-0	W-D-L	6-3-4
1.00	Pts / game	1.62
3.00	Goals for / game	1.46
3.00	Goals against / game	1.23
100%	Over 2.5	62%
100%	BTTS	54%
0%	Clean sheets	38%
0%	Failed to score	23%
0-1-0	Home record	2-2-2
0-0-0	Away record	4-1-2
D1	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Numancia · Oviedo

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—	Shots	15.9
—	Shots on target	5.9
—	Corners	5.5
5.00	Cards	3.44
—	Fouls	14.4
—	Possession %	51
—	xG	1.58
1 matches	sample	9 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—	Shots	15.4
—	Shots on target	5.5
—	Corners	6.1
2.00	Cards	3.46
—	Fouls	14.0
—	Possession %	49
—	xG	1.81
1 matches	sample	9 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Numancia	Metric	Oviedo
0.40	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
0.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
	Expected goals (xG)	1.92
	Big chances
	Shots on target	5.60
	Total shots	15.00
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners	5.20
	Possession %	48.4
	Passes	380
	Tackles
	Fouls	13.60
	Offsides	0.80
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards	3.40
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Numancia wins: 0
Draws: 1
Oviedo wins: 0
Goals / game: 6.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Numancia v Oviedo3–32026-10-29