Northampton v Tranmere

21st0–111th

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Northampton		Tranmere
21	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	1
9	Corners	6
12	Fouls	9
0	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
—	Offsides	—
486	Passes	277
64%	Possession %	36%
1.48	xG	0.84

Over 1.5: 68%
Over 2.5: 41%
Over 3.5: 21%
Both score: 48%

Model pick: Tranmere 36%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.14 – 1.19

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Northampton	34.1%	2.93	2.33 Dafabet	42.9%	-8.8
Match result	Draw	29.5%	3.40	3.45 Dafabet	29.0%	+0.5
Match result	Tranmere	36.4%	2.75	3.20 BetVictor	31.3%	+5.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	68.3%	1.47	1.38 Betano	72.5%	-4.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	31.7%	3.15	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	+1.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	41.2%	2.43	2.12 Betano	47.2%	-6.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	58.8%	1.70	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+3.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	20.7%	4.83	3.80 BetVictor	26.3%	-5.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	79.3%	1.26	1.28 Bet365	78.1%	+1.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	48.0%	2.08	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-5.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	52.0%	1.92	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	+2.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Northampton v Tranmere: too close to call

Our model makes Northampton 34% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 29% and Tranmere at 36%. The goal projection is 1.14 for Northampton against 1.19 for Tranmere — almost nothing to Tranmere on expected output. A combined 2.33 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 41% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-1 11%; 1-0 10%; 0-0 10%; 1-2 8%

This season

Season records for Northampton and Tranmere
Northampton		Tranmere
13	Played	14
3-5-5	W-D-L	4-7-3
1.08	Pts / game	1.36
0.69	Goals for / game	1.36
0.77	Goals against / game	1.21
0%	Over 2.5	36%
31%	BTTS	64%
31%	Clean sheets	29%
46%	Failed to score	14%
2-2-3	Home record	3-3-1
1-3-2	Away record	1-4-2
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Northampton · Tranmere

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.0	Shots	12.9
4.0	Shots on target	5.3
6.0	Corners	5.0
1.33	Cards	1.57
13.0	Fouls	9.9
46	Possession %	43
1.11	xG	1.24
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.8	Shots	14.6
2.7	Shots on target	4.3
4.2	Corners	6.3
1.67	Cards	1.71
10.2	Fouls	10.9
54	Possession %	57
1.51	xG	1.21
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (3 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Northampton	Metric	Tranmere
0.67	Goals scored	1.00 (better)
1.33	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.18 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.99
	Big chances
3.00	Shots on target	4.00 (better)
13.67 (better)	Total shots	11.20
	Touches in opp. box
4.67 (better)	Corners	3.20
37.3	Possession %	44.8 (better)
286	Passes	365 (better)
	Tackles
15.67	Fouls	10.60 (better)
1.00	Offsides	0.80 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.67	Yellow cards	1.40 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Northampton wins: 0
Draws: 0
Tranmere wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Northampton v Tranmere0–12026-10-20

League Two table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	+10	31	Salford City won 5 of the last 5
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	+10	26	Barnet won 2 of the last 5
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	+9	22	Walsall won 2 of the last 5
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	0	22	Crewe won 2 of the last 5
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	-2	21	Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	+6	20	Grimsby won 2 of the last 5
7	York	14	5	5	4	+3	20	York won 1 of the last 5
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20	Gillingham won 2 of the last 5
9	Accrington ST	14	4	7	3	+6	19	Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19	Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	+2	19	Tranmere won 2 of the last 5
12	Exeter City	14	5	4	5	+2	19	Exeter City won 3 of the last 5
13	Swindon Town	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	+3	18	Newport County won 2 of the last 5
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	-5	18	Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	0	17	Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16	Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	-4	15	Oldham won 2 of the last 5
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15	Port Vale won 3 of the last 5
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15	Rochdale won 0 of the last 5
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	-1	14	Northampton won 2 of the last 5
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	-7	12	Rotherham won 0 of the last 5
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	-7	12	Colchester won 0 of the last 5
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	-8	9	Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5