Northampton v Colchester

21st2–023rd

11:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Northampton		Colchester
13	Shots	4
4	Shots on target	3
7	Corners	2
12	Fouls	13
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
291	Passes	573
35%	Possession %	65%
0.75	xG	1.04

Over 1.5: 63%
Over 2.5: 35%
Over 3.5: 16%
Both score: 42%

Model pick: Colchester 45%
Likely score: 0-1 15%
Expected goals: 0.86 – 1.25

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Northampton -0.75

2.44BetVictor · fair 2.19 · qualifies at 2.26+ · 1.98u

Why this price?

Back Northampton -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 2.44 with BetVictor — Northampton must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 18% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 64%; we judge it at 46%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.19. The offered 2.44 implies only 41%, so the price is 11.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.98 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Northampton 0.86, Colchester 1.25.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	41.7%	2.40	1.93 Betano	51.8%	-10.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	58.3%	1.72	1.90 Betfair	52.6%	+5.6
Match result	Northampton	24.8%	4.03	2.10 Betano	47.6%	-22.8
Match result	Draw	30.4%	3.29	3.40 Betfair	29.4%	+1.0
Match result	Colchester	44.8%	2.23	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	+18.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	62.9%	1.59	1.40 Betano	71.4%	-8.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	37.1%	2.69	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	+4.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	35.3%	2.84	2.22 Betano	45.0%	-9.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	64.7%	1.54	1.70 Betano	58.8%	+5.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	16.3%	6.14	4.10 BetVictor	24.4%	-8.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	83.7%	1.20	1.26 Betano	79.4%	+4.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Colchester favoured against Northampton

Our model makes Northampton 25% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 30% and Colchester at 45%. The goal projection is 0.86 for Northampton against 1.25 for Colchester — a clear edge to Colchester on expected output. A combined 2.11 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 35% and both teams to score at 42%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 15%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-1 15%; 1-1 14%; 0-0 13%; 1-0 10%; 0-2 9%

This season

Season records for Northampton and Colchester
Northampton		Colchester
13	Played	13
3-5-5	W-D-L	2-6-5
1.08	Pts / game	0.92
0.69	Goals for / game	0.92
0.77	Goals against / game	1.46
0%	Over 2.5	38%
31%	BTTS	62%
31%	Clean sheets	15%
46%	Failed to score	31%
2-2-3	Home record	2-3-1
1-3-2	Away record	0-3-4
L1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Northampton · Colchester

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.0	Shots	12.0
4.0	Shots on target	3.3
6.0	Corners	4.5
1.33	Cards	1.50
13.0	Fouls	15.0
46	Possession %	54
1.11	xG	1.29
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.8	Shots	14.5
2.7	Shots on target	4.8
4.2	Corners	5.8
1.67	Cards	2.17
10.2	Fouls	13.2
54	Possession %	46
1.51	xG	1.42
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (3 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Northampton	Metric	Colchester
0.67	Goals scored	1.00 (better)
1.33 (better)	Goals conceded	1.75
1.18 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.73
	Big chances
3.00	Shots on target	3.00
13.67 (better)	Total shots	10.00
	Touches in opp. box
4.67 (better)	Corners	3.25
37.3	Possession %	52.3 (better)
287	Passes	414 (better)
	Tackles
15.67	Fouls	15.25 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
1.67 (better)	Yellow cards	2.25
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Northampton wins: 1
Draws: 0
Colchester wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Northampton v Colchester2–02026-10-24

League Two table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	+10	31	Salford City won 5 of the last 5
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	+10	26	Barnet won 2 of the last 5
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	+9	22	Walsall won 2 of the last 5
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	0	22	Crewe won 2 of the last 5
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	-2	21	Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	+6	20	Grimsby won 2 of the last 5
7	York	14	5	5	4	+3	20	York won 1 of the last 5
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20	Gillingham won 2 of the last 5
9	Accrington ST	14	4	7	3	+6	19	Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19	Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	+2	19	Tranmere won 2 of the last 5
12	Exeter City	14	5	4	5	+2	19	Exeter City won 3 of the last 5
13	Swindon Town	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	+3	18	Newport County won 2 of the last 5
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	-5	18	Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	0	17	Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16	Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	-4	15	Oldham won 2 of the last 5
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15	Port Vale won 3 of the last 5
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15	Rochdale won 0 of the last 5
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	-1	14	Northampton won 2 of the last 5
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	-7	12	Rotherham won 0 of the last 5
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	-7	12	Colchester won 0 of the last 5
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	-8	9	Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5