NK Varazdin won 1 of the last 5LDLLW5th1–2NK Slaven Belupo won 3 of the last 5WLWLW7th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
NK Varazdin
NK Slaven Belupo
15
Shots
8
4
Shots on target
3
1
Corners
3
10
Fouls
12
2
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
1
1
Offsides
3
476
Passes
396
54%
Possession %
46%
1.54
xG
0.62
56%
24%
20%
1 · NK VarazdinXNK Slaven Belupo · 2
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
33%
Both score
55%
Model pick
NK Varazdin 56%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.87 – 1.05
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
NK Varazdin
56.1%
1.78
1.70 Dafabet
58.8%
-2.7
Match result
Draw
23.5%
4.25
4.30 Dafabet
23.3%
+0.3
Match result
NK Slaven Belupo
20.4%
4.91
4.80 Betano
20.8%
-0.5
Total goals
Over 1.5
79.4%
1.26
1.21 Betano
82.6%
-3.3
Total goals
Under 1.5
20.6%
4.84
4.75 BetVictor
21.1%
-0.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
55.8%
1.79
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
-4.1
Total goals
Under 2.5
44.2%
2.26
2.30 Betano
43.5%
+0.7
Total goals
Over 3.5
33.4%
2.99
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
-4.6
Total goals
Under 3.5
66.6%
1.50
1.52 Betano
65.8%
+0.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
55.4%
1.80
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
-4.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
44.6%
2.24
2.25 BetVictor
44.4%
+0.1
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
NK Varazdin favoured against NK Slaven Belupo
Our model makes NK Varazdin 56% to win this Croatian HNL fixture, with the draw at 24% and NK Slaven Belupo at 20%. The goal projection is 1.87 for NK Varazdin against 1.05 for NK Slaven Belupo — a substantial edge to NK Varazdin on expected output. A combined 2.92 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 10%
1-0 10%
2-0 9%
3-1 6%
This season
Season records for NK Varazdin and NK Slaven Belupo
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
NK Varazdin
Metric
NK Slaven Belupo
1.40
Goals scored
2.40 (better)
0.40 (better)
Goals conceded
1.20
1.16
Expected goals (xG)
1.39 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
4.00 (better)
Shots on target
3.67
15.67 (better)
Total shots
13.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.00 (better)
Corners
4.67
49.0 (better)
Possession %
45.3
418 (better)
Passes
352
—
Tackles
—
13.33
Fouls
11.00 (better)
1.00 (better)
Offsides
2.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.00 (better)
Yellow cards
2.00
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.33
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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NK Varazdin v 
NK Slaven Belupo