NK Slaven Belupo won 3 of the last 5WLWLW7th0–2Istra 1961 won 3 of the last 5WWDLW4th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
NK Slaven Belupo
Istra 1961
14
Shots
9
4
Shots on target
6
5
Corners
2
14
Fouls
17
2
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
1
482
Passes
445
52%
Possession %
48%
0.77
xG
1.08
37%
25%
38%
1 · NK Slaven BelupoXIstra 1961 · 2
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
37%
Both score
63%
Model pick
Istra 1961 38%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.56
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Total goals
Under 1.5
18.0%
5.57
5.00 Bet365
20.0%
-2.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
59.8%
1.67
1.60 Bet365
62.5%
-2.7
Total goals
Under 2.5
40.2%
2.49
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
-1.8
Total goals
Over 3.5
37.5%
2.67
2.47 Betano
40.5%
-3.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
62.5%
1.60
1.55 Betano
64.5%
-2.0
Match result
NK Slaven Belupo
37.1%
2.69
2.45 Dafabet
40.8%
-3.7
Match result
Draw
24.9%
4.01
3.60 BetVictor
27.8%
-2.8
Match result
Istra 1961
38.0%
2.63
3.10 Bet365
32.3%
+5.7
Total goals
Over 1.5
82.0%
1.22
1.19 Betano
84.0%
-2.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
62.6%
1.60
1.53 William Hill
65.4%
-2.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
37.4%
2.67
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
-0.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
NK Slaven Belupo v Istra 1961: too close to call
Our model makes NK Slaven Belupo 37% to win this Croatian HNL fixture, with the draw at 25% and Istra 1961 at 38%. The goal projection is 1.54 for NK Slaven Belupo against 1.56 for Istra 1961 — almost nothing to Istra 1961 on expected output. A combined 3.10 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 11%
1-2 8%
2-1 8%
0-1 6%
2-2 6%
This season
Season records for NK Slaven Belupo and Istra 1961
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
NK Slaven Belupo
Metric
Istra 1961
1.60
Goals scored
2.20 (better)
2.20
Goals conceded
1.20 (better)
1.59 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.56
—
Big chances *
—
4.25
Shots on target
7.25 (better)
12.50
Total shots
14.75 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.75
Corners
5.00 (better)
44.3
Possession %
49.8 (better)
347
Passes
407 (better)
—
Tackles
—
10.25
Fouls
10.00 (better)
2.00
Offsides
1.25 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.50 (better)
Yellow cards
2.00
0.25
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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NK Slaven Belupo v 
Istra 1961