NK Slaven Belupo won 3 of the last 5WLWLW7th1–5Dinamo Zagreb won 3 of the last 5WLWWL2nd
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
NK Slaven Belupo
Dinamo Zagreb
11
Shots
17
6
Shots on target
8
5
Corners
2
8
Fouls
11
0
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
331
Passes
492
41%
Possession %
59%
2.19
xG
3.78
16%
19%
64%
1 · NK Slaven BelupoXDinamo Zagreb · 2
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
69%
Over 3.5
47%
Both score
63%
Model pick
Dinamo Zagreb 64%
Likely score
1-2 10%
Expected goals
1.15 – 2.40
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
NK Slaven Belupo
16.3%
6.14
—
—
—
Match result
Draw
19.3%
5.19
5.60 Dafabet
17.9%
+1.4
Match result
Dinamo Zagreb
64.5%
1.55
1.38 Betano
72.5%
-8.0
Total goals
Over 1.5
87.4%
1.14
1.12 Bet365
89.3%
-1.9
Total goals
Under 1.5
12.6%
7.92
6.50 Bet365
15.4%
-2.8
Total goals
Over 2.5
68.8%
1.45
1.44 Bet365
69.4%
-0.7
Total goals
Under 2.5
31.2%
3.20
3.10 Betfair
32.3%
-1.0
Total goals
Over 3.5
47.3%
2.11
2.10 Bet365
47.6%
-0.3
Total goals
Under 3.5
52.7%
1.90
—
—
—
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
62.6%
1.60
1.62 William Hill
61.7%
+0.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
37.4%
2.67
2.30 William Hill
43.5%
-6.1
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Dinamo Zagreb favoured against NK Slaven Belupo
Our model makes NK Slaven Belupo 16% to win this Croatian HNL fixture, with the draw at 19% and Dinamo Zagreb at 64%. The goal projection is 1.15 for NK Slaven Belupo against 2.40 for Dinamo Zagreb — a commanding edge to Dinamo Zagreb on expected output. A combined 3.55 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Dinamo Zagreb is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 36% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-2 10%
1-1 8%
0-2 8%
1-3 8%
0-3 7%
This season
Season records for NK Slaven Belupo and Dinamo Zagreb
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
NK Slaven Belupo
Metric
Dinamo Zagreb
2.00
Goals scored
2.00
1.20 (better)
Goals conceded
1.60
1.24
Expected goals (xG)
1.74 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.33
Shots on target
3.75 (better)
14.00
Total shots
14.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.33 (better)
Corners
4.75
46.3
Possession %
49.5 (better)
362
Passes
408 (better)
—
Tackles
—
11.67 (better)
Fouls
15.25
2.50
Offsides
0.75 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
3.00
Yellow cards
1.50 (better)
0.50
Red cards
0.33 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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NK Slaven Belupo v 
Dinamo Zagreb