NK Osijek v Rudes

3rd0–18th

17:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
NK Osijek		Rudes
13	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	4
7	Corners	3
21	Fouls	16
0	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	3
458	Passes	224
67%	Possession %	33%
0.62	xG	1.89

Over 1.5: 88%
Over 2.5: 70%
Over 3.5: 49%
Both score: 67%

Model pick: NK Osijek 58%
Likely score: 2-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.27 – 1.36

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	33.0%	3.03	2.10 BetVictor	47.6%	-14.7
Match result	NK Osijek	57.6%	1.74	1.48 Dafabet	67.6%	-9.9
Match result	Draw	20.6%	4.86	4.80 Dafabet	20.8%	-0.2
Match result	Rudes	21.8%	4.59	6.40 Dafabet	15.6%	+6.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	88.1%	1.14	1.18 Betano	84.7%	+3.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	11.9%	8.43	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-8.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	70.3%	1.42	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+6.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	29.7%	3.36	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-11.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	49.1%	2.04	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	+8.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	50.9%	1.97	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-11.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	67.0%	1.49	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	+9.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

NK Osijek favoured against Rudes

Our model makes NK Osijek 58% to win this Croatian HNL fixture, with the draw at 21% and Rudes at 22%. The goal projection is 2.27 for NK Osijek against 1.36 for Rudes — a commanding edge to NK Osijek on expected output. A combined 3.63 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 70% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 9%; 1-1 9%; 3-1 7%; 2-0 7%; 2-2 6%

This season

Season records for NK Osijek and Rudes
NK Osijek		Rudes
13	Played	13
6-2-5	W-D-L	5-1-7
1.54	Pts / game	1.23
1.69	Goals for / game	1.23
1.38	Goals against / game	2.08
54%	Over 2.5	69%
46%	BTTS	54%
31%	Clean sheets	23%
31%	Failed to score	23%
3-1-3	Home record	2-1-3
3-1-2	Away record	3-0-4
L1	Streak	W3

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. NK Osijek · Rudes

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.8	Shots	9.8
4.6	Shots on target	3.2
6.6	Corners	3.4
2.40	Cards	3.20
17.8	Fouls	15.4
56	Possession %	31
1.20	xG	1.29
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.2	Shots	14.4
4.4	Shots on target	3.4
6.4	Corners	6.2
2.60	Cards	0.80
13.6	Fouls	10.6
44	Possession %	69
1.63	xG	1.28
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
NK Osijek	Metric	Rudes
1.40	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
1.80 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
1.12 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.91
	Big chances
5.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.50
14.67 (better)	Total shots	10.00
	Touches in opp. box
4.67 (better)	Corners	4.25
53.0 (better)	Possession %	36.3
428 (better)	Passes	302
	Tackles
17.00	Fouls	14.50 (better)
0.67 (better)	Offsides	1.75
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	2.75 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

NK Osijek wins: 1
Draws: 0
Rudes wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 50%

NK Osijek v Rudes0–12026-10-25
Rudes v NK Osijek1–62026-08-08

Croatian HNL table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	HNK Hajduk Split	13	9	2	2	+16	29	HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of the last 5
2	Dinamo Zagreb	11	7	1	3	+11	22	Dinamo Zagreb won 3 of the last 5
3	NK Osijek	13	6	2	5	+4	20	NK Osijek won 1 of the last 5
4	Istra 1961	13	5	4	4	+5	19	Istra 1961 won 3 of the last 5
5	NK Varazdin	13	5	4	4	+3	19	NK Varazdin won 1 of the last 5
6	HNK Rijeka	12	5	3	4	+1	18	HNK Rijeka won 1 of the last 5
7	NK Slaven Belupo	12	5	1	6	-7	16	NK Slaven Belupo won 3 of the last 5
8	Rudes	13	5	1	7	-11	16	Rudes won 4 of the last 5
9	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	13	3	2	8	-7	11	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb won 1 of the last 5
10	HNK Gorica	13	1	4	8	-15	7	HNK Gorica won 0 of the last 5