NK Osijek v HNK Gorica

3rd1–110th

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
NK Osijek		HNK Gorica
28	Shots	6
7	Shots on target	3
11	Corners	6
11	Fouls	13
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	4
467	Passes	245
59%	Possession %	41%
1.74	xG	0.58

Over 1.5: 68%
Over 2.5: 41%
Over 3.5: 21%
Both score: 46%

Model pick: NK Osijek 47%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.39 – 0.94

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	NK Osijek	46.7%	2.14	1.70 Betano	58.8%	-12.1
Match result	Draw	28.5%	3.51	4.00 Dafabet	25.0%	+3.5
Match result	HNK Gorica	24.8%	4.03	4.70 Dafabet	21.3%	+3.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	68.2%	1.47	1.25 Bet365	80.0%	-11.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	31.8%	3.15	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 2.5	41.2%	2.43	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-14.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	58.8%	1.70	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 3.5	20.7%	4.84	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	-12.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	79.3%	1.26	1.44 Betano	69.4%	+9.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	46.4%	2.15	1.75 William Hill	57.1%	-10.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	53.6%	1.86	2.00 William Hill	50.0%	+3.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

NK Osijek favoured against HNK Gorica

Our model makes NK Osijek 47% to win this Croatian HNL fixture, with the draw at 29% and HNK Gorica at 25%. The goal projection is 1.39 for NK Osijek against 0.94 for HNK Gorica — a clear edge to NK Osijek on expected output. A combined 2.33 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 41% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 13%; 0-0 10%; 2-0 9%; 2-1 9%

This season

Season records for NK Osijek and HNK Gorica
NK Osijek		HNK Gorica
13	Played	13
6-2-5	W-D-L	1-4-8
1.54	Pts / game	0.54
1.69	Goals for / game	0.77
1.38	Goals against / game	1.92
54%	Over 2.5	46%
46%	BTTS	46%
31%	Clean sheets	23%
31%	Failed to score	46%
3-1-3	Home record	0-3-4
3-1-2	Away record	1-1-4
L1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. NK Osijek · HNK Gorica

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.8	Shots	10.2
4.6	Shots on target	3.4
6.6	Corners	7.4
2.40	Cards	1.60
17.8	Fouls	13.4
56	Possession %	51
1.20	xG	0.95
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.2	Shots	16.0
4.4	Shots on target	5.2
6.4	Corners	5.4
2.60	Cards	1.80
13.6	Fouls	13.6
44	Possession %	49
1.63	xG	2.04
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
NK Osijek	Metric	HNK Gorica
1.40	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
2.00	Goals conceded	1.60 (better)
1.00 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.92
	Big chances
4.67 (better)	Shots on target	4.33
12.33	Total shots	12.33
	Touches in opp. box
2.33	Corners	4.00 (better)
48.7	Possession %	51.7 (better)
396	Passes	460 (better)
	Tackles
15.00	Fouls	10.33 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	1.33
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	1.33 (better)
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

NK Osijek wins: 2
Draws: 3
HNK Gorica wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.50
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 33%

NK Osijek v HNK Gorica1–12026-10-17
HNK Gorica v NK Osijek0–22026-08-01
HNK Gorica v NK Osijek2–02026-05-16
NK Osijek v HNK Gorica0–02026-03-14
NK Osijek v HNK Gorica1–12025-12-13
HNK Gorica v NK Osijek0–12025-09-28

Croatian HNL table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	HNK Hajduk Split	13	9	2	2	+16	29	HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of the last 5
2	Dinamo Zagreb	11	7	1	3	+11	22	Dinamo Zagreb won 3 of the last 5
3	NK Osijek	13	6	2	5	+4	20	NK Osijek won 1 of the last 5
4	Istra 1961	13	5	4	4	+5	19	Istra 1961 won 3 of the last 5
5	NK Varazdin	13	5	4	4	+3	19	NK Varazdin won 1 of the last 5
6	HNK Rijeka	12	5	3	4	+1	18	HNK Rijeka won 1 of the last 5
7	NK Slaven Belupo	12	5	1	6	-7	16	NK Slaven Belupo won 3 of the last 5
8	Rudes	13	5	1	7	-11	16	Rudes won 4 of the last 5
9	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	13	3	2	8	-7	11	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb won 1 of the last 5
10	HNK Gorica	13	1	4	8	-15	7	HNK Gorica won 0 of the last 5