NK Lokomotiva Zagreb won 1 of the last 5LLDWL9th1–3NK Osijek won 1 of the last 5LWLDL3rd
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Osijek
15
Shots
12
5
Shots on target
6
10
Corners
2
13
Fouls
22
1
Yellow cards
4
0
Red cards
0
3
Offsides
1
401
Passes
313
56%
Possession %
44%
1.91
xG
2.21
42%
27%
31%
1 · NK Lokomotiva ZagrebXNK Osijek · 2
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
27%
Both score
54%
Model pick
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 42%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.19
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
53.5%
1.87
1.65 William Hill
60.6%
-7.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
46.5%
2.15
2.25 Betfair
44.4%
+2.0
Match result
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
41.8%
2.39
2.70 Betano
37.0%
+4.8
Match result
Draw
27.3%
3.66
3.45 Dafabet
29.0%
-1.7
Match result
NK Osijek
30.9%
3.24
2.60 William Hill
38.5%
-7.6
Total goals
Over 1.5
74.2%
1.35
1.27 Betano
78.7%
-4.5
Total goals
Under 1.5
25.8%
3.88
4.10 Betfair
24.4%
+1.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
48.6%
2.06
1.82 Betano
54.9%
-6.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
51.4%
1.95
2.00 Bet365
50.0%
+1.4
Total goals
Over 3.5
26.8%
3.73
3.10 Betfair
32.3%
-5.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
73.2%
1.37
1.40 Bet365
71.4%
+1.8
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb favoured against NK Osijek
Our model makes NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 42% to win this Croatian HNL fixture, with the draw at 27% and NK Osijek at 31%. The goal projection is 1.43 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb against 1.19 for NK Osijek — a slight edge to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb on expected output. A combined 2.62 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 10%
2-1 9%
0-1 8%
0-0 8%
This season
Season records for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and NK Osijek
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Metric
NK Osijek
1.40
Goals scored
1.40
1.00 (better)
Goals conceded
1.40
1.11
Expected goals (xG)
1.28 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
4.50
Shots on target
5.25 (better)
11.75
Total shots
17.75 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.25
Corners
6.25 (better)
45.0
Possession %
54.5 (better)
348
Passes
439 (better)
—
Tackles
—
15.50
Fouls
15.50
2.00
Offsides
0.75 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.75
Yellow cards
2.75
0.50
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v 
NK Osijek