NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v 
Istra 1961
Match statistics
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | Istra 1961 | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 328 | Passes | 418 |
| 45% | Possession % | 55% |
| 1.49 | xG | 0.58 |
- Over 1.5
- 76%
- Over 2.5
- 51%
- Over 3.5
- 29%
- Both score
- 56%
- Model pick
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 41%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.45 – 1.27
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5NK Lokomotiva Zagreb -0.5
Why this price?
Back NK Lokomotiva Zagreb -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.30 with Betano — NK Lokomotiva Zagreb must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 41% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 54%; we judge it at 49%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.06. The offered 2.30 implies only 43%, so the price is 11.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.45, Istra 1961 1.27.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 40.6% | 2.46 | 2.38 Dafabet | 42.0% | -1.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.8% | 3.73 | 3.70 Dafabet | 27.0% | -0.2 |
| Match result | Istra 1961 | 32.6% | 3.07 | 2.85 Dafabet | 35.1% | -2.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 76.1% | 1.31 | 1.22 Betano | 82.0% | -5.8 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 23.9% | 4.19 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 51.2% | 1.96 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | -8.7 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 29.1% | 3.44 | 2.63 BetVictor | 38.0% | -9.0 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 70.9% | 1.41 | 1.47 Betano | 68.0% | +2.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 55.7% | 1.80 | 1.60 William Hill | 62.5% | -6.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 44.3% | 2.26 | — | — | — |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb favoured against Istra 1961
Our model makes NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 41% to win this Croatian HNL fixture, with the draw at 27% and Istra 1961 at 33%. The goal projection is 1.45 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb against 1.27 for Istra 1961 — a slight edge to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb on expected output. A combined 2.72 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 1-0 9%
- 2-1 9%
- 0-1 8%
- 1-2 8%
This season
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | Istra 1961 | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Played | 13 |
| 3-2-8 | W-D-L | 5-4-4 |
| 0.85 | Pts / game | 1.46 |
| 1.08 | Goals for / game | 1.85 |
| 1.62 | Goals against / game | 1.46 |
| 46% | Over 2.5 | 69% |
| 54% | BTTS | 62% |
| 15% | Clean sheets | 23% |
| 38% | Failed to score | 23% |
| 2-1-3 | Home record | 3-2-2 |
| 1-1-5 | Away record | 2-2-2 |
| L2 | Streak | W2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · Istra 1961
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.2 | Shots | 13.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.8 | Shots on target | 6.0 |
| 5.7 | Corners | 5.2 |
| 2.17 | Cards | 2.80 |
| 13.5 | Fouls | 14.0 |
| 52 | Possession % | 46 |
| 1.27 | xG | 1.66 |
| 6 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 13.5 | Shots | 14.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.7 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 5.8 | Corners | 6.2 |
| 2.17 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 14.8 | Fouls | 15.4 |
| 48 | Possession % | 54 |
| 1.39 | xG | 1.10 |
| 6 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | Metric | Istra 1961 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 2.00 (better) |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 1.00 (better) |
| 1.05 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.06 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.25 | Shots on target | 5.00 (better) |
| 10.00 | Total shots | 10.50 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.00 | Corners | 3.25 (better) |
| 42.0 | Possession % | 44.8 (better) |
| 319 | Passes | 378 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 15.75 | Fouls | 11.00 (better) |
| 1.67 | Offsides | 0.50 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 3.00 | Yellow cards | 2.00 (better) |
| 1.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb wins
- 3
- Draws
- 2
- Istra 1961 wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 67%
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v Istra 19612–02026-10-17
- Istra 1961 v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb2–32026-08-01
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v Istra 19612–02026-04-11
- Istra 1961 v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1–12026-01-30
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v Istra 19611–22025-10-25
- Istra 1961 v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb2–22025-08-09
Croatian HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | +16 | 29 | HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Dinamo Zagreb | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | +11 | 22 | Dinamo Zagreb won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | NK Osijek | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 20 | NK Osijek won 1 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Istra 1961 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +5 | 19 | Istra 1961 won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | NK Varazdin | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 19 | NK Varazdin won 1 of the last 5 |
| 6 | HNK Rijeka | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 18 | HNK Rijeka won 1 of the last 5 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 16 | NK Slaven Belupo won 3 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Rudes | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 16 | Rudes won 4 of the last 5 |
| 9 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 11 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -15 | 7 | HNK Gorica won 0 of the last 5 |