Newport County v Chesterfield

14th4–110th

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Newport County		Chesterfield
21	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	3
6	Corners	4
12	Fouls	12
2	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	6
195	Passes	510
28%	Possession %	71%
1.23	xG	1.41

Over 1.5: 73%
Over 2.5: 47%
Over 3.5: 25%
Both score: 52%

Model pick: Chesterfield 39%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.20 – 1.34

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Chesterfield +0.25

1.75Bet365 · fair 1.60 · qualifies at 1.64+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Chesterfield +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.75 with Bet365 — Chesterfield starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 62% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 63%; we judge it at 63%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.60. The offered 1.75 implies only 57%, so the price is 9.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Newport County 1.20, Chesterfield 1.34.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Newport County	32.7%	3.06	5.00 Betfair	20.0%	+12.7
Match result	Draw	28.0%	3.58	3.95 Dafabet	25.3%	+2.7
Match result	Chesterfield	39.3%	2.54	1.74 Dafabet	57.5%	-18.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	72.6%	1.38	1.29 Betano	77.5%	-4.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	27.4%	3.65	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	+0.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	46.5%	2.15	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-4.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	53.5%	1.87	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	+3.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	25.0%	4.00	3.30 Betfair	30.3%	-5.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	75.0%	1.33	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	+3.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	52.1%	1.92	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-1.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	47.9%	2.09	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	+2.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Newport County v Chesterfield: too close to call

Our model makes Newport County 33% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 28% and Chesterfield at 39%. The goal projection is 1.20 for Newport County against 1.34 for Chesterfield — a slight edge to Chesterfield on expected output. A combined 2.54 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 10%; 1-0 9%; 0-0 9%; 1-2 8%

This season

Season records for Newport County and Chesterfield
Newport County		Chesterfield
14	Played	14
4-6-4	W-D-L	5-4-5
1.29	Pts / game	1.36
1.43	Goals for / game	1.71
1.21	Goals against / game	1.50
50%	Over 2.5	57%
57%	BTTS	71%
29%	Clean sheets	14%
29%	Failed to score	14%
4-3-0	Home record	3-3-1
0-3-4	Away record	2-1-4
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Newport County · Chesterfield

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.4	Shots	18.3
4.0	Shots on target	6.1
4.7	Corners	7.6
1.86	Cards	2.29
14.0	Fouls	9.1
38	Possession %	65
1.44	xG	1.46
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.0	Shots	8.4
2.6	Shots on target	3.1
2.4	Corners	2.3
3.00	Cards	2.43
14.1	Fouls	11.7
61	Possession %	35
1.21	xG	1.02
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Newport County	Metric	Chesterfield
1.20	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
1.43	Expected goals (xG)	2.17 (better)
	Big chances
3.60	Shots on target	6.80 (better)
12.60	Total shots	20.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	9.40 (better)
38.4	Possession %	63.6 (better)
284	Passes	550 (better)
	Tackles
12.80	Fouls	9.00 (better)
1.60 (better)	Offsides	2.40
	Throw-ins
1.40 (better)	Yellow cards	2.40
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Newport County wins: 2
Draws: 0
Chesterfield wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.33
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Newport County v Chesterfield4–12026-10-30
Newport County v Chesterfield2–12026-01-24
Chesterfield v Newport County4–12025-09-27

League Two table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	+10	31	Salford City won 5 of the last 5
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	+10	26	Barnet won 2 of the last 5
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	+9	22	Walsall won 2 of the last 5
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	0	22	Crewe won 2 of the last 5
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	-2	21	Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	+6	20	Grimsby won 2 of the last 5
7	York	14	5	5	4	+3	20	York won 1 of the last 5
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20	Gillingham won 2 of the last 5
9	Accrington ST	14	4	7	3	+6	19	Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19	Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	+2	19	Tranmere won 2 of the last 5
12	Exeter City	14	5	4	5	+2	19	Exeter City won 3 of the last 5
13	Swindon Town	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	+3	18	Newport County won 2 of the last 5
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	-5	18	Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	0	17	Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16	Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	-4	15	Oldham won 2 of the last 5
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15	Port Vale won 3 of the last 5
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15	Rochdale won 0 of the last 5
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	-1	14	Northampton won 2 of the last 5
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	-7	12	Rotherham won 0 of the last 5
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	-7	12	Colchester won 0 of the last 5
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	-8	9	Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5