Newcastle Jets v SHANGHAI SIPG

10th2–45th

07:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Newcastle Jets		SHANGHAI SIPG
12	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	5
6	Corners	5
15	Fouls	13
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	0
439	Passes	526
46%	Possession %	54%
0.69	xG	1.35

Over 1.5: 85%
Over 2.5: 65%
Over 3.5: 43%
Both score: 65%

Model pick: SHANGHAI SIPG 49%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.41 – 1.92

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Newcastle Jets	27.9%	3.58	3.50 Betfair	28.6%	-0.7
Match result	Draw	23.2%	4.32	4.10 Bet365	24.4%	-1.2
Match result	SHANGHAI SIPG	48.9%	2.04	2.20 William Hill	45.5%	+3.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	57.4%	1.74	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	+3.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	65.0%	1.54	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-4.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	35.0%	2.86	3.00 Betfair	33.3%	+1.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	85.0%	1.18	1.13 Betano	88.5%	-3.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.0%	6.66	6.50 Bet365	15.4%	-0.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	64.7%	1.55	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-4.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	35.3%	2.83	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	+2.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	42.6%	2.35	2.02 Betano	49.5%	-6.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

SHANGHAI SIPG favoured against Newcastle Jets

Our model makes Newcastle Jets 28% to win this AFC Champions League Elite fixture, with the draw at 23% and SHANGHAI SIPG at 49%. The goal projection is 1.41 for Newcastle Jets against 1.92 for SHANGHAI SIPG — a substantial edge to SHANGHAI SIPG on expected output. A combined 3.33 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 7%; 0-2 7%; 2-2 7%

This season

Season records for Newcastle Jets and SHANGHAI SIPG
Newcastle Jets		SHANGHAI SIPG
4	Played	30
0-2-2	W-D-L	14-8-8
0.50	Pts / game	1.67
1.00	Goals for / game	1.87
2.00	Goals against / game	1.23
75%	Over 2.5	63%
75%	BTTS	70%
0%	Clean sheets	20%
25%	Failed to score	13%
0-1-1	Home record	7-5-3
0-1-1	Away record	7-3-5
L2	Streak	W4

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Newcastle Jets · SHANGHAI SIPG

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.9	Shots	14.3
3.9	Shots on target	5.9
6.3	Corners	5.0
1.57	Cards	2.39
12.0	Fouls	11.4
57	Possession %	61
1.22	xG	1.34
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.6	Shots	13.3
6.1	Shots on target	4.4
5.1	Corners	3.9
1.86	Cards	2.00
10.7	Fouls	14.3
43	Possession %	39
1.88	xG	1.66
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Newcastle Jets	Metric	SHANGHAI SIPG
1.40	Goals scored	3.40 (better)
3.20	Goals conceded	1.60 (better)
1.27	Expected goals (xG)	1.69 (better)
	Big chances
3.00	Shots on target	6.20 (better)
11.00	Total shots	12.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.25 (better)	Corners	4.40
51.8	Possession %	58.4 (better)
529 (better)	Passes	507
	Tackles
12.75	Fouls	11.60 (better)
2.50 (better)	Offsides	2.80
	Throw-ins
1.75 (better)	Yellow cards	2.80
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Newcastle Jets wins: 0
Draws: 0
SHANGHAI SIPG wins: 1
Goals / game: 6.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Newcastle Jets v SHANGHAI SIPG2–42026-11-03

AFC Champions League Elite table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Al Ain	4	4	0	0	+11	12	Al Ain won 4 of the last 4
2	Vissel Kobe	4	4	0	0	+5	12	Vissel Kobe won 4 of the last 4
3	Kashima	4	3	1	0	+10	10	Kashima won 3 of the last 4
4	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	4	3	0	1	+3	9	Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3 of the last 4
5	Esteghlal FC	4	3	0	1	+3	9	Esteghlal FC won 3 of the last 4
6	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	4	3	0	1	+2	9	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 3 of the last 4
7	Al-Qadisiyah FC	4	2	2	0	+6	8	Al-Qadisiyah FC won 2 of the last 4
8	Gamba Osaka	4	2	2	0	+5	8	Gamba Osaka won 2 of the last 4
9	Al-Ahli Jeddah	4	2	2	0	+3	8	Al-Ahli Jeddah won 2 of the last 4
10	Kashiwa Reysol	4	2	1	1	+5	7	Kashiwa Reysol won 2 of the last 4
11	SHANGHAI SIPG	4	2	1	1	+3	7	SHANGHAI SIPG won 2 of the last 4
12	Johor Darul Takzim FC	4	2	1	1	+3	7	Johor Darul Takzim FC won 2 of the last 4
13	Kyoto Sanga	4	2	1	1	+3	7	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 4
14	Jeonbuk Motors	4	2	1	1	+1	7	Jeonbuk Motors won 2 of the last 4
15	Beijing Guoan	4	2	1	1	0	7	Beijing Guoan won 2 of the last 4
16	Al-Nassr	3	2	0	1	+2	6	Al-Nassr won 2 of the last 3
17	Al Shamal	4	1	2	1	+1	5	Al Shamal won 1 of the last 4
18	Neftchi	4	1	1	2	-2	4	Neftchi won 1 of the last 4
19	Daejeon Citizen	4	1	1	2	-2	4	Daejeon Citizen won 1 of the last 4
20	Al-Ittihad FC	4	1	1	2	-3	4	Al-Ittihad FC won 1 of the last 4
21	Công An Nhân Dân	4	1	1	2	-3	4	Công An Nhân Dân won 1 of the last 4
22	Buriram United	4	0	3	1	-1	3	Buriram United won 0 of the last 4
23	Al-Wasl FC	3	1	0	2	-2	3	Al-Wasl FC won 1 of the last 3
24	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	4	1	0	3	-4	3	Al Quwa Al Jawiya won 1 of the last 4
25	Port FC	4	1	0	3	-5	3	Port FC won 1 of the last 4
26	Tractor Sazi	4	0	2	2	-2	2	Tractor Sazi won 0 of the last 4
27	Pakhtakor	4	0	2	2	-5	2	Pakhtakor won 0 of the last 4
28	Al Sadd	4	0	2	2	-5	2	Al Sadd won 0 of the last 4
29	Ratchaburi	4	0	1	3	-4	1	Ratchaburi won 0 of the last 4
30	Pohang Steelers	4	0	1	3	-7	1	Pohang Steelers won 0 of the last 4
31	Al-Gharafa	4	0	0	4	-8	0	Al-Gharafa won 0 of the last 4
32	Newcastle Jets	4	0	0	4	-13	0	Newcastle Jets won 0 of the last 4