NEOM v Al-Ettifaq

5th0–17th

15:40 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
NEOM		Al-Ettifaq
12	Shots	4
3	Shots on target	1
10	Corners	2
15	Fouls	12
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	0
519	Passes	377
58%	Possession %	42%
0.74	xG	0.16

Over 1.5: 79%
Over 2.5: 56%
Over 3.5: 33%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: NEOM 43%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.58 – 1.34

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	NEOM	42.6%	2.35	1.98 Betano	50.5%	-7.9
Match result	Draw	25.6%	3.90	3.90 Betfair	25.6%	-0.0
Match result	Al-Ettifaq	31.8%	3.15	3.90 Betfair	25.6%	+6.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.4%	1.26	1.22 Betano	82.0%	-2.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.6%	4.86	4.60 BetVictor	21.7%	-1.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	55.9%	1.79	1.67 Betano	59.9%	-4.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	44.1%	2.27	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	+0.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	33.5%	2.99	2.62 Betano	38.2%	-4.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	66.5%	1.50	1.52 Betano	65.8%	+0.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	59.2%	1.69	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-3.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	40.8%	2.45	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-1.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

NEOM favoured against Al-Ettifaq

Our model makes NEOM 43% to win this Saudi Pro League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Al-Ettifaq at 32%. The goal projection is 1.58 for NEOM against 1.34 for Al-Ettifaq — a slight edge to NEOM on expected output. A combined 2.92 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 8%; 1-2 8%; 2-0 7%

This season

Season records for NEOM and Al-Ettifaq
NEOM		Al-Ettifaq
12	Played	12
7-1-4	W-D-L	5-4-3
1.83	Pts / game	1.58
1.50	Goals for / game	1.50
0.83	Goals against / game	1.42
33%	Over 2.5	50%
33%	BTTS	50%
33%	Clean sheets	42%
33%	Failed to score	17%
4-0-2	Home record	1-2-3
3-1-2	Away record	4-2-0
W2	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. NEOM · Al-Ettifaq

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.2	Shots	12.4
3.4	Shots on target	5.4
5.2	Corners	5.4
1.40	Cards	3.00
13.2	Fouls	12.2
56	Possession %	51
1.22	xG	1.33
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.8	Shots	13.2
2.6	Shots on target	4.4
2.6	Corners	5.2
1.80	Cards	2.00
12.0	Fouls	12.6
44	Possession %	49
1.16	xG	1.95
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
NEOM	Metric	Al-Ettifaq
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
1.16 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.95
	Big chances
4.60 (better)	Shots on target	4.40
15.00 (better)	Total shots	13.20
	Touches in opp. box
5.20 (better)	Corners	4.20
54.2	Possession %	54.6 (better)
456 (better)	Passes	432
	Tackles
11.80 (better)	Fouls	12.00
2.00 (better)	Offsides	3.00
	Throw-ins
1.80 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

NEOM wins: 0
Draws: 2
Al-Ettifaq wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 33%

NEOM v Al-Ettifaq0–12026-10-17
NEOM v Al-Ettifaq1–12026-05-21
Al-Ettifaq v NEOM0–02026-01-21

Saudi Pro League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	11	10	0	1	+23	30	Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5 of the last 5
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	12	9	1	2	+20	28	Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of the last 5
3	Al-Nassr	11	9	1	1	+17	28	Al-Nassr won 4 of the last 5
4	Al-Ittihad FC	11	7	3	1	+10	24	Al-Ittihad FC won 3 of the last 5
5	NEOM	12	7	1	4	+8	22	NEOM won 2 of the last 5
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	11	7	0	4	+9	21	Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of the last 5
7	Al-Ettifaq	12	5	4	3	+1	19	Al-Ettifaq won 2 of the last 5
8	Al Diriyah	12	4	3	5	-3	15	Al Diriyah won 1 of the last 5
9	Al Khaleej Saihat	12	3	6	3	-5	15	Al Khaleej Saihat won 3 of the last 5
10	Al Shabab	11	3	5	3	+5	14	Al Shabab won 3 of the last 5
11	Al Kholood	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Al Kholood won 0 of the last 5
12	Al Riyadh	11	3	3	5	-14	12	Al Riyadh won 2 of the last 5
13	Al-Fayha	12	2	5	5	-4	11	Al-Fayha won 1 of the last 5
14	Al-Hazm	12	2	4	6	-6	10	Al-Hazm won 0 of the last 5
15	Al-Faisaly FC	12	2	4	6	-11	10	Al-Faisaly FC won 2 of the last 5
16	Al-Fateh	12	1	3	8	-15	6	Al-Fateh won 1 of the last 5
17	Al Taawon	12	0	5	7	-14	5	Al Taawon won 0 of the last 5
18	Abha	11	0	3	8	-12	3	Abha won 0 of the last 5