Napoli v Frosinone

10th3–06th

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Napoli		Frosinone
19	Shots	17
8	Shots on target	1
6	Corners	4
8	Fouls	12
2	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
456	Passes	425
51%	Possession %	49%
3.17	xG	1.03

Over 1.5: 70%
Over 2.5: 43%
Over 3.5: 22%
Both score: 49%

Model pick: Frosinone 39%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.11 – 1.27

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Under 2.5

2.30Bet365 · fair 2.08 · qualifies at 2.17+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back under 2.5 goals at 2.30 with Bet365 — 2 goals or fewer in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 57% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 42%; we judge it at 48%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.08. The offered 2.30 implies only 43%, so the price is 10.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Napoli 1.11, Frosinone 1.27.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Napoli	31.4%	3.18	1.52 Betano	65.8%	-34.4
Match result	Draw	29.2%	3.42	5.20 Betano	19.2%	+10.0
Match result	Frosinone	39.4%	2.54	7.00 Betfair	14.3%	+25.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	69.5%	1.44	1.20 Bet365	83.3%	-13.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	30.5%	3.28	6.50 BetVictor	15.4%	+15.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	42.5%	2.35	1.53 Betfair	65.4%	-22.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	57.5%	1.74	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	+22.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	21.7%	4.60	2.62 Bet365	38.2%	-16.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	78.3%	1.28	1.75 Betano	57.1%	+21.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	49.0%	2.04	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-10.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	51.0%	1.96	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+9.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Frosinone favoured against Napoli

Our model makes Napoli 31% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 29% and Frosinone at 39%. The goal projection is 1.11 for Napoli against 1.27 for Frosinone — a slight edge to Frosinone on expected output. A combined 2.38 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-1 11%; 0-0 10%; 1-0 9%; 1-2 8%

This season

Season records for Napoli and Frosinone
Napoli		Frosinone
11	Played	11
4-3-4	W-D-L	6-2-3
1.36	Pts / game	1.82
1.64	Goals for / game	2.18
1.27	Goals against / game	1.36
45%	Over 2.5	55%
55%	BTTS	45%
27%	Clean sheets	27%
18%	Failed to score	27%
2-2-1	Home record	5-0-1
2-1-3	Away record	1-2-2
D1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Napoli · Frosinone

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.1	Shots	22.7
6.1	Shots on target	7.6
5.9	Corners	7.9
1.07	Cards	1.57
9.3	Fouls	13.6
55	Possession %	50
1.88	xG	2.14
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.6	Shots	17.6
3.8	Shots on target	6.3
5.0	Corners	5.6
2.13	Cards	2.14
10.6	Fouls	11.1
45	Possession %	50
1.00	xG	2.05
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Napoli	Metric	Frosinone
1.00	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.60	Expected goals (xG)	2.00 (better)
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	6.75 (better)
12.20	Total shots	19.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.40	Corners	6.50 (better)
47.4 (better)	Possession %	45.5
466 (better)	Passes	309
	Tackles
10.40 (better)	Fouls	17.50
3.00 (better)	Offsides	3.50
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.25
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Napoli wins: 1
Draws: 0
Frosinone wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Napoli v Frosinone3–02026-10-10

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27	AS Roma won 4 of the last 5
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24	AC Milan won 4 of the last 5
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15	Napoli won 1 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13	Genoa won 3 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5