Nantes v Dunkerque

14th2–310th

12:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Nantes		Dunkerque
19	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	4
8	Corners	7
22	Fouls	13
3	Yellow cards	3
—	Red cards	—
5	Offsides	1
467	Passes	324
60%	Possession %	40%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 52%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 56%

Model pick: Dunkerque 44%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.22 – 1.53

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Nantes	29.5%	3.38	1.70 Betano	58.8%	-29.3
Match result	Draw	26.4%	3.79	—	—	—
Match result	Dunkerque	44.1%	2.27	5.20 Dafabet	19.2%	+24.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.6%	1.30	1.26 Betano	79.4%	-2.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	23.4%	4.28	4.10 BetVictor	24.4%	-1.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	51.8%	1.93	1.80 Betfair	55.6%	-3.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	48.2%	2.08	2.07 Betano	48.3%	-0.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	29.7%	3.37	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-2.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	70.3%	1.42	1.44 Betano	69.4%	+0.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	55.8%	1.79	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+0.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	44.2%	2.26	2.02 Betano	49.5%	-5.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Dunkerque favoured against Nantes

Our model makes Nantes 30% to win this Ligue 2 fixture, with the draw at 26% and Dunkerque at 44%. The goal projection is 1.22 for Nantes against 1.53 for Dunkerque — a clear edge to Dunkerque on expected output. A combined 2.75 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 9%; 1-2 9%; 0-2 8%; 2-1 7%

This season

Season records for Nantes and Dunkerque
Nantes		Dunkerque
12	Played	12
3-3-6	W-D-L	4-3-5
1.00	Pts / game	1.25
1.17	Goals for / game	1.42
1.50	Goals against / game	1.42
42%	Over 2.5	42%
50%	BTTS	50%
25%	Clean sheets	8%
33%	Failed to score	42%
1-2-3	Home record	3-2-2
2-1-3	Away record	1-1-3
W1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Nantes · Dunkerque

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.2	Shots	12.6
4.0	Shots on target	3.4
5.6	Corners	4.8
3.05	Cards	1.65
20.8	Fouls	12.4
45	Possession %	56
1.16	xG	1.21
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
8.8	Shots	15.2
3.0	Shots on target	5.8
5.2	Corners	5.6
3.05	Cards	2.40
13.8	Fouls	18.0
55	Possession %	44
0.52	xG	1.46
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Nantes	Metric	Dunkerque
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	0.60
2.00	Goals conceded	1.80 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)	0.82
	Big chances
3.60 (better)	Shots on target	1.50
14.20 (better)	Total shots	9.25
	Touches in opp. box
5.00 (better)	Corners	3.00
56.6 (better)	Possession %	44.5
475 (better)	Passes	415
	Tackles
17.40	Fouls	13.75 (better)
2.00 (better)	Offsides	2.50
	Throw-ins
1.80 (better)	Yellow cards	2.25
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Nantes wins: 0
Draws: 0
Dunkerque wins: 1
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Nantes v Dunkerque2–32026-10-17

Ligue 2 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Saint Etienne	12	9	1	2	+14	28	Saint Etienne won 4 of the last 5
2	Nancy	12	8	1	3	+8	25	Nancy won 5 of the last 5
3	Montpellier	12	7	3	2	+9	24	Montpellier won 4 of the last 5
4	Reims	12	5	6	1	+9	21	Reims won 2 of the last 5
5	PAU	12	6	2	4	+3	20	PAU won 4 of the last 5
6	Dijon	12	5	3	4	+2	18	Dijon won 3 of the last 5
7	Metz	12	4	5	3	+1	17	Metz won 2 of the last 5
8	RED Star FC 93	12	5	2	5	-3	17	RED Star FC 93 won 1 of the last 5
9	Annecy	12	5	1	6	-4	16	Annecy won 2 of the last 5
10	Dunkerque	12	4	3	5	0	15	Dunkerque won 2 of the last 5
11	Guingamp	12	4	2	6	-2	14	Guingamp won 2 of the last 5
12	Boulogne	12	2	7	3	+2	13	Boulogne won 2 of the last 5
13	Rodez	12	4	1	7	-6	13	Rodez won 2 of the last 5
14	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Nantes won 1 of the last 5
15	Clermont Foot	12	1	8	3	-4	11	Clermont Foot won 1 of the last 5
16	Sochaux	12	2	5	5	-7	11	Sochaux won 0 of the last 5
17	Grenoble	12	3	2	7	-9	11	Grenoble won 1 of the last 5
18	Laval	12	2	3	7	-9	9	Laval won 1 of the last 5