Nantes v Clermont Foot

14th1–115th

19:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Nantes		Clermont Foot
10	Shots	3
5	Shots on target	1
4	Corners	4
24	Fouls	21
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	2
447	Passes	539
45%	Possession %	55%
0.77	xG	0.33

Over 1.5: 70%
Over 2.5: 43%
Over 3.5: 22%
Both score: 49%

Model pick: Clermont Foot 38%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.14 – 1.25

Advised bets

Half lostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Clermont Foot -0.25

3.15Marathonbet · fair 3.00 · qualifies at 3.09+ · 0.58u

Why this price?

Back Clermont Foot -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 3.15 with Marathonbet — Clermont Foot must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 45% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 26%; we judge it at 33%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.00. The offered 3.15 implies only 32%, so the price is 5.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.58 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Nantes 1.14, Clermont Foot 1.25.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Nantes	32.9%	3.04	1.45 Betano	69.0%	-36.0
Match result	Draw	29.0%	3.45	4.60 Dafabet	21.7%	+7.3
Match result	Clermont Foot	38.1%	2.63	7.30 Betano	13.7%	+24.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	69.5%	1.44	1.29 Betano	77.5%	-8.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	30.5%	3.28	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+7.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	42.7%	2.34	1.87 Betano	53.5%	-10.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	57.3%	1.75	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	+7.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	21.8%	4.58	3.15 Betano	31.7%	-9.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	78.2%	1.28	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	+8.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	49.1%	2.04	2.05 Betano	48.8%	+0.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	50.9%	1.97	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-2.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Nantes v Clermont Foot: too close to call

Our model makes Nantes 33% to win this Ligue 2 fixture, with the draw at 29% and Clermont Foot at 38%. The goal projection is 1.14 for Nantes against 1.25 for Clermont Foot — a slight edge to Clermont Foot on expected output. A combined 2.39 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-1 11%; 0-0 10%; 1-0 10%; 1-2 8%

This season

Season records for Nantes and Clermont Foot
Nantes		Clermont Foot
12	Played	12
3-3-6	W-D-L	1-8-3
1.00	Pts / game	0.92
1.17	Goals for / game	0.92
1.50	Goals against / game	1.25
42%	Over 2.5	25%
50%	BTTS	58%
25%	Clean sheets	33%
33%	Failed to score	33%
1-2-3	Home record	1-4-2
2-1-3	Away record	0-4-1
W1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Nantes · Clermont Foot

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.2	Shots	8.2
4.0	Shots on target	2.6
5.6	Corners	3.8
3.05	Cards	2.00
20.8	Fouls	15.4
45	Possession %	53
1.16	xG	0.98
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
8.8	Shots	12.8
3.0	Shots on target	6.2
5.2	Corners	5.0
3.05	Cards	2.00
13.8	Fouls	17.8
55	Possession %	47
0.52	xG	1.71
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Nantes	Metric	Clermont Foot
1.00	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	2.20
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
3.00	Shots on target	3.75 (better)
15.20 (better)	Total shots	8.25
	Touches in opp. box
6.20 (better)	Corners	4.00
55.0 (better)	Possession %	49.3
444	Passes	473 (better)
	Tackles
17.00	Fouls	15.25 (better)
2.60	Offsides	1.75 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Nantes wins: 0
Draws: 1
Clermont Foot wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 100%

Nantes v Clermont Foot1–12026-10-30

Ligue 2 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Saint Etienne	12	9	1	2	+14	28	Saint Etienne won 4 of the last 5
2	Nancy	12	8	1	3	+8	25	Nancy won 5 of the last 5
3	Montpellier	12	7	3	2	+9	24	Montpellier won 4 of the last 5
4	Reims	12	5	6	1	+9	21	Reims won 2 of the last 5
5	PAU	12	6	2	4	+3	20	PAU won 4 of the last 5
6	Dijon	12	5	3	4	+2	18	Dijon won 3 of the last 5
7	Metz	12	4	5	3	+1	17	Metz won 2 of the last 5
8	RED Star FC 93	12	5	2	5	-3	17	RED Star FC 93 won 1 of the last 5
9	Annecy	12	5	1	6	-4	16	Annecy won 2 of the last 5
10	Dunkerque	12	4	3	5	0	15	Dunkerque won 2 of the last 5
11	Guingamp	12	4	2	6	-2	14	Guingamp won 2 of the last 5
12	Boulogne	12	2	7	3	+2	13	Boulogne won 2 of the last 5
13	Rodez	12	4	1	7	-6	13	Rodez won 2 of the last 5
14	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Nantes won 1 of the last 5
15	Clermont Foot	12	1	8	3	-4	11	Clermont Foot won 1 of the last 5
16	Sochaux	12	2	5	5	-7	11	Sochaux won 0 of the last 5
17	Grenoble	12	3	2	7	-9	11	Grenoble won 1 of the last 5
18	Laval	12	2	3	7	-9	9	Laval won 1 of the last 5