Nancy v Laval

2nd1–018th

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Nancy		Laval
12	Shots	6
2	Shots on target	3
4	Corners	5
12	Fouls	19
1	Yellow cards	5
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	5
433	Passes	431
51%	Possession %	49%
0.88	xG	1.26

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Nancy 42%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.43 – 1.19

Advised bets

Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Nancy -0.75

1.85Marathonbet · fair 1.72 · qualifies at 1.77+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Nancy -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.85 with Marathonbet — Nancy must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 35% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 74%; we judge it at 58%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.72. The offered 1.85 implies only 54%, so the price is 7.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Nancy 1.43, Laval 1.19.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Nancy	41.8%	2.39	1.70 Betfair	58.8%	-17.1
Match result	Draw	27.3%	3.66	4.10 Dafabet	24.4%	+2.9
Match result	Laval	30.9%	3.23	5.30 Betano	18.9%	+12.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.3%	1.35	1.27 Betano	78.7%	-4.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.7%	3.89	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	+1.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	48.7%	2.05	1.82 Betano	54.9%	-6.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.3%	1.95	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 3.5	26.9%	3.72	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-5.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.1%	1.37	1.42 Betano	70.4%	+2.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.6%	1.86	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	+0.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.4%	2.16	2.00 William Hill	50.0%	-3.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Nancy favoured against Laval

Our model makes Nancy 42% to win this Ligue 2 fixture, with the draw at 27% and Laval at 31%. The goal projection is 1.43 for Nancy against 1.19 for Laval — a slight edge to Nancy on expected output. A combined 2.62 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 9%; 0-1 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Nancy and Laval
Nancy		Laval
12	Played	12
8-1-3	W-D-L	2-3-7
2.08	Pts / game	0.75
1.42	Goals for / game	1.17
0.75	Goals against / game	1.92
33%	Over 2.5	58%
33%	BTTS	67%
50%	Clean sheets	8%
25%	Failed to score	25%
4-0-2	Home record	2-2-2
4-1-1	Away record	0-1-5
W6	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Nancy · Laval

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.8	Shots	10.2
4.8	Shots on target	3.8
4.4	Corners	4.2
2.00	Cards	2.40
15.6	Fouls	18.8
48	Possession %	55
1.68	xG	1.52
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
8.0	Shots	11.8
2.4	Shots on target	4.2
5.4	Corners	4.2
2.80	Cards	1.80
14.6	Fouls	15.6
52	Possession %	45
0.95	xG	1.45
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Nancy	Metric	Laval
1.40	Goals scored	1.40
1.60 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
4.75	Shots on target	5.25 (better)
16.50	Total shots	16.75 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.75	Corners	5.75 (better)
53.5	Possession %	57.0 (better)
505 (better)	Passes	502
	Tackles
15.25 (better)	Fouls	16.50
1.75 (better)	Offsides	3.00
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.50
1.00	Red cards	0.50 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Nancy wins: 1
Draws: 1
Laval wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.67
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 33%

Nancy v Laval1–02026-10-23
Laval v Nancy1–12026-02-27
Nancy v Laval0–22025-11-07

Ligue 2 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Saint Etienne	12	9	1	2	+14	28	Saint Etienne won 4 of the last 5
2	Nancy	12	8	1	3	+8	25	Nancy won 5 of the last 5
3	Montpellier	12	7	3	2	+9	24	Montpellier won 4 of the last 5
4	Reims	12	5	6	1	+9	21	Reims won 2 of the last 5
5	PAU	12	6	2	4	+3	20	PAU won 4 of the last 5
6	Dijon	12	5	3	4	+2	18	Dijon won 3 of the last 5
7	Metz	12	4	5	3	+1	17	Metz won 2 of the last 5
8	RED Star FC 93	12	5	2	5	-3	17	RED Star FC 93 won 1 of the last 5
9	Annecy	12	5	1	6	-4	16	Annecy won 2 of the last 5
10	Dunkerque	12	4	3	5	0	15	Dunkerque won 2 of the last 5
11	Guingamp	12	4	2	6	-2	14	Guingamp won 2 of the last 5
12	Boulogne	12	2	7	3	+2	13	Boulogne won 2 of the last 5
13	Rodez	12	4	1	7	-6	13	Rodez won 2 of the last 5
14	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Nantes won 1 of the last 5
15	Clermont Foot	12	1	8	3	-4	11	Clermont Foot won 1 of the last 5
16	Sochaux	12	2	5	5	-7	11	Sochaux won 0 of the last 5
17	Grenoble	12	3	2	7	-9	11	Grenoble won 1 of the last 5
18	Laval	12	2	3	7	-9	9	Laval won 1 of the last 5