Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5LLDDW13th1–1Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5DWDDD7th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Nagoya Grampus
Yokohama F. Marinos
21
Shots
11
7
Shots on target
7
7
Corners
3
10
Fouls
18
1
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
6
Offsides
3
471
Passes
395
54%
Possession %
46%
2.41
xG
1.47
32%
26%
43%
1 · Nagoya GrampusXYokohama F. Marinos · 2
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
32%
Both score
58%
Model pick
Yokohama F. Marinos 43%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.56
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Total goals
Under 3.5
67.7%
1.48
1.42 Betano
70.4%
-2.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
58.2%
1.72
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
-1.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
41.8%
2.39
2.30 Betfair
43.5%
-1.7
Match result
Nagoya Grampus
31.5%
3.17
2.45 Dafabet
40.8%
-9.3
Match result
Draw
25.9%
3.86
3.60 BetVictor
27.8%
-1.9
Match result
Yokohama F. Marinos
42.6%
2.35
2.85 Dafabet
35.1%
+7.5
Total goals
Over 1.5
78.6%
1.27
1.25 Bet365
80.0%
-1.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
21.4%
4.67
4.20 Betfair
23.8%
-2.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
54.7%
1.83
1.75 Bet365
57.1%
-2.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
45.3%
2.21
2.10 Betfair
47.6%
-2.3
Total goals
Over 3.5
32.3%
3.09
3.00 BetVictor
33.3%
-1.0
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Yokohama F. Marinos favoured against Nagoya Grampus
Our model makes Nagoya Grampus 32% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Yokohama F. Marinos at 43%. The goal projection is 1.31 for Nagoya Grampus against 1.56 for Yokohama F. Marinos — a slight edge to Yokohama F. Marinos on expected output. A combined 2.87 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 12%
1-2 9%
0-1 8%
2-1 8%
0-2 7%
This season
Season records for Nagoya Grampus and Yokohama F. Marinos
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Nagoya Grampus
Metric
Yokohama F. Marinos
2.00 (better)
Goals scored
1.20
1.40
Goals conceded
0.60 (better)
0.90 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.85
—
Big chances *
—
3.00 (better)
Shots on target
1.50
11.00
Total shots
12.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.67
Corners
5.00 (better)
53.0
Possession %
53.5 (better)
436 (better)
Passes
395
—
Tackles
—
10.33 (better)
Fouls
12.50
1.67 (better)
Offsides
2.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.00 (better)
Yellow cards
2.00
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Nagoya Grampus v 
Yokohama F. Marinos