MVV v Excelsior

0–315th

19:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
MVV		Excelsior
16	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	6
6	Corners	1
10	Fouls	11
1	Yellow cards	0
—	Red cards	—
1	Offsides	2
525	Passes	364
59%	Possession %	41%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 69%
Over 3.5: 48%
Both score: 69%

Model pick: Excelsior 44%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 1.64 – 1.92

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	MVV	33.0%	3.03	7.00 Bet365	14.3%	+18.7
Match result	Draw	22.8%	4.39	5.00 Betfair	20.0%	+2.8
Match result	Excelsior	44.3%	2.26	1.47 Betano	68.0%	-23.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	87.5%	1.14	1.13 Betano	88.5%	-1.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	12.5%	7.99	7.00 BetVictor	14.3%	-1.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	69.0%	1.45	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-0.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	31.0%	3.23	2.90 BetVictor	34.5%	-3.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	47.6%	2.10	2.05 Betano	48.8%	-1.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	52.4%	1.91	1.80 Betfair	55.6%	-3.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	69.2%	1.44	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+5.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	30.8%	3.25	2.45 William Hill	40.8%	-10.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Excelsior favoured against MVV

Our model makes MVV 33% to win this KNVB Beker fixture, with the draw at 23% and Excelsior at 44%. The goal projection is 1.64 for MVV against 1.92 for Excelsior — a clear edge to Excelsior on expected output. A combined 3.56 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 7%; 2-2 7%; 1-3 5%

This season

Season records for MVV and Excelsior
MVV		Excelsior
1	Played	12
0-0-1	W-D-L	3-2-7
0.00	Pts / game	0.92
0.00	Goals for / game	1.33
3.00	Goals against / game	2.42
100%	Over 2.5	83%
0%	BTTS	50%
0%	Clean sheets	17%
100%	Failed to score	33%
0-0-1	Home record	1-0-5
0-0-0	Away record	2-2-2
L1	Streak	L5

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. MVV · Excelsior

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.0	Shots	8.3
6.0	Shots on target	2.2
6.0	Corners	2.7
1.00	Cards	0.87
10.0	Fouls	9.5
59	Possession %	44
—	xG	0.76
1 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.0	Shots	14.2
6.0	Shots on target	7.3
1.0	Corners	5.2
0.00	Cards	1.17
11.0	Fouls	9.5
41	Possession %	56
—	xG	2.65
1 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
MVV	Metric	Excelsior
1.00	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
3.20	Goals conceded	3.00 (better)
0.47	Expected goals (xG)	1.15 (better)
	Big chances
2.00	Shots on target	2.80 (better)
9.00	Total shots	9.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.80 (better)	Corners	2.60
56.4 (better)	Possession %	40.6
467 (better)	Passes	386
	Tackles
11.80	Fouls	11.40 (better)
2.00	Offsides	0.40 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	1.60
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

MVV wins: 0
Draws: 0
Excelsior wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

MVV v Excelsior0–32026-10-28