Motor Lublin v Zaglebie Lubin

10th2–26th

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Motor Lublin		Zaglebie Lubin
25	Shots	10
7	Shots on target	3
8	Corners	2
8	Fouls	5
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	4
489	Passes	370
58%	Possession %	42%
2.12	xG	0.57

Over 1.5: 79%
Over 2.5: 56%
Over 3.5: 33%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: Motor Lublin 38%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.48 – 1.43

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Zaglebie Lubin

3.64Marathonbet · fair 3.37 · qualifies at 3.47+ · 0.76u

Why this price?

Back Zaglebie Lubin to win at 3.64 with Marathonbet.

Our model puts the chance at 36% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 25%; we judge it at 30%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.37. The offered 3.64 implies only 27%, so the price is 8.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.76 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Motor Lublin 1.48, Zaglebie Lubin 1.43.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Motor Lublin	38.2%	2.62	2.02 Betano	49.5%	-11.3
Match result	Draw	25.9%	3.87	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	-1.9
Match result	Zaglebie Lubin	35.9%	2.78	3.70 Betfair	27.0%	+8.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.3%	1.26	1.27 Betano	78.7%	+0.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.7%	4.83	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	-3.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	55.7%	1.80	1.85 Bet365	54.1%	+1.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	44.3%	2.26	2.02 Betano	49.5%	-5.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	33.3%	3.00	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	-0.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	66.7%	1.50	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	-4.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	59.4%	1.69	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-0.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	40.6%	2.46	2.22 Betano	45.0%	-4.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Motor Lublin v Zaglebie Lubin: too close to call

Our model makes Motor Lublin 38% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 26% and Zaglebie Lubin at 36%. The goal projection is 1.48 for Motor Lublin against 1.43 for Zaglebie Lubin — almost nothing to Motor Lublin on expected output. A combined 2.91 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 7%; 0-1 7%

This season

Season records for Motor Lublin and Zaglebie Lubin
Motor Lublin		Zaglebie Lubin
14	Played	14
5-4-5	W-D-L	6-5-3
1.36	Pts / game	1.64
1.57	Goals for / game	1.29
1.71	Goals against / game	1.21
71%	Over 2.5	50%
79%	BTTS	57%
14%	Clean sheets	36%
14%	Failed to score	21%
3-2-3	Home record	5-1-1
2-2-2	Away record	1-4-2
W2	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Motor Lublin · Zaglebie Lubin

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
24.4	Shots	11.7
8.8	Shots on target	4.0
7.2	Corners	2.8
3.20	Cards	2.87
11.6	Fouls	13.3
57	Possession %	37
3.05	xG	1.12
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.2	Shots	18.7
3.8	Shots on target	5.8
4.6	Corners	7.0
3.00	Cards	1.50
11.4	Fouls	12.7
43	Possession %	63
0.97	xG	1.91
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Motor Lublin	Metric	Zaglebie Lubin
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.40
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
1.60 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.53
	Big chances
6.25 (better)	Shots on target	5.25
16.25 (better)	Total shots	15.25
	Touches in opp. box
4.00 (better)	Corners	3.50
49.3 (better)	Possession %	42.3
415 (better)	Passes	342
	Tackles
16.25	Fouls	14.00 (better)
2.00	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	3.50
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Motor Lublin wins: 1
Draws: 2
Zaglebie Lubin wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Motor Lublin v Zaglebie Lubin2–22026-10-23
Motor Lublin v Zaglebie Lubin1–02026-03-20
Zaglebie Lubin v Motor Lublin2–22025-09-21

Ekstraklasa table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lech Poznan	13	10	2	1	+21	32	Lech Poznan won 4 of the last 5
2	Gornik Zabrze	14	9	4	1	+11	31	Gornik Zabrze won 2 of the last 5
3	Legia Warszawa	14	6	6	2	+10	24	Legia Warszawa won 1 of the last 5
4	Pogon Szczecin	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Pogon Szczecin won 3 of the last 5
5	Wisla Krakow	14	7	3	4	+3	24	Wisla Krakow won 2 of the last 5
6	Zaglebie Lubin	14	6	5	3	+1	23	Zaglebie Lubin won 2 of the last 5
7	Piast Gliwice	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Piast Gliwice won 2 of the last 5
8	GKS Katowice	14	7	0	7	+5	21	GKS Katowice won 2 of the last 5
9	Jagiellonia	13	7	0	6	0	21	Jagiellonia won 3 of the last 5
10	Motor Lublin	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Motor Lublin won 4 of the last 5
11	Korona Kielce	14	5	3	6	-7	18	Korona Kielce won 1 of the last 5
12	Wisla Plock	13	4	3	6	-7	15	Wisla Plock won 1 of the last 5
13	Widzew Łódź	14	2	8	4	+1	14	Widzew Łódź won 1 of the last 5
14	Radomiak Radom	14	4	2	8	-12	14	Radomiak Radom won 2 of the last 5
15	Cracovia Krakow	14	3	3	8	-7	12	Cracovia Krakow won 1 of the last 5
16	Raków Częstochowa	14	4	0	10	-8	12	Raków Częstochowa won 3 of the last 5
17	Slask Wroclaw	14	2	4	8	-8	10	Slask Wroclaw won 1 of the last 5
18	Wieczysta Kraków	14	2	2	10	-10	8	Wieczysta Kraków won 0 of the last 5