Motor Lublin won 4 of the last 5WWDWW10th3–2Wisla Plock won 1 of the last 5LDLWL12th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Motor Lublin
Wisla Plock
27
Shots
10
7
Shots on target
5
8
Corners
6
14
Fouls
12
6
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
1
1
Offsides
1
495
Passes
331
60%
Possession %
40%
4.60
xG
1.18
48%
26%
26%
1 · Motor LublinXWisla Plock · 2
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Both score
54%
Model pick
Motor Lublin 48%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.10
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Motor Lublin
47.7%
2.09
2.00 Betano
50.0%
-2.3
Match result
Draw
26.3%
3.80
3.75 Betfair
26.7%
-0.4
Total goals
Over 3.5
28.0%
3.57
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
-10.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
72.0%
1.39
1.50 Betano
66.7%
+5.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
53.5%
1.87
1.60 William Hill
62.5%
-9.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
46.5%
2.15
2.38 BetVictor
42.0%
+4.5
Match result
Wisla Plock
26.0%
3.85
3.55 Dafabet
28.2%
-2.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
75.3%
1.33
1.22 Betano
82.0%
-6.7
Total goals
Under 1.5
24.7%
4.04
4.50 BetVictor
22.2%
+2.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
50.0%
2.00
1.70 Bet365
58.8%
-8.8
Total goals
Under 2.5
50.0%
2.00
2.30 Betfair
43.5%
+6.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Motor Lublin favoured against Wisla Plock
Our model makes Motor Lublin 48% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 26% and Wisla Plock at 26%. The goal projection is 1.58 for Motor Lublin against 1.10 for Wisla Plock — a clear edge to Motor Lublin on expected output. A combined 2.68 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Motor Lublin
Metric
Wisla Plock
1.80 (better)
Goals scored
1.20
1.40
Goals conceded
1.20 (better)
2.26 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.66
—
Big chances *
—
8.00 (better)
Shots on target
2.33
22.50 (better)
Total shots
7.67
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.25 (better)
Corners
4.00
56.3 (better)
Possession %
48.0
447
Passes
464 (better)
—
Tackles
—
12.75
Fouls
11.67 (better)
1.50 (better)
Offsides
2.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.75
Yellow cards
0.67 (better)
—
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Motor Lublin v 
Wisla Plock