Motor Lublin won 4 of the last 5WWDWW10th3–2Slask Wroclaw won 1 of the last 5DLWLL17th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Motor Lublin
Slask Wroclaw
29
Shots
6
11
Shots on target
3
10
Corners
1
12
Fouls
18
2
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
1
477
Passes
254
66%
Possession %
34%
3.89
xG
0.79
42%
25%
33%
1 · Motor LublinXSlask Wroclaw · 2
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
36%
Both score
61%
Model pick
Motor Lublin 42%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.41
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Motor Lublin
41.8%
2.39
2.05 Betano
48.8%
-6.9
Match result
Draw
25.2%
3.97
3.90 Betfair
25.6%
-0.5
Match result
Slask Wroclaw
33.0%
3.03
3.90 BetVictor
25.6%
+7.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
81.0%
1.24
1.22 Bet365
82.0%
-1.0
Total goals
Under 1.5
19.0%
5.26
4.75 BetVictor
21.1%
-2.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
58.2%
1.72
1.80 Bet365
55.6%
+2.7
Total goals
Under 2.5
41.8%
2.39
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
+1.0
Total goals
Over 3.5
35.8%
2.79
2.88 BetVictor
34.7%
+1.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
64.2%
1.56
1.55 Betano
64.5%
-0.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
61.1%
1.64
1.70 William Hill
58.8%
+2.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
38.9%
2.57
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
-0.3
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Motor Lublin favoured against Slask Wroclaw
Our model makes Motor Lublin 42% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 25% and Slask Wroclaw at 33%. The goal projection is 1.61 for Motor Lublin against 1.41 for Slask Wroclaw — a slight edge to Motor Lublin on expected output. A combined 3.02 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Motor Lublin
Metric
Slask Wroclaw
1.20 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
1.40 (better)
Goals conceded
2.00
1.43 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.30
—
Big chances *
—
3.75
Shots on target
4.00 (better)
14.50 (better)
Total shots
9.67
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.25
Corners
5.33 (better)
46.0
Possession %
51.3 (better)
397
Passes
459 (better)
—
Tackles
—
15.25
Fouls
11.67 (better)
1.50
Offsides
1.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
0.75 (better)
Yellow cards
1.67
0.00
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Motor Lublin v 
Slask Wroclaw