Predicted Edge

Morecambe v Darlington 1883

Morecambe won 2 of the last 33–0Darlington 1883 won 1 of the last 2
Over 1.5
89%
Over 2.5
71%
Over 3.5
50%
Both score
71%
Model pick
Morecambe 41%
Likely score
1-1 9%
Expected goals
1.91 – 1.77

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultMorecambe41.5%2.411.75 BetVictor57.1%-15.7
Match resultDraw22.7%4.414.33 Bet36523.1%-0.4
Match resultDarlington 188335.8%2.795.00 Betfair20.0%+15.8
Total goalsOver 1.588.6%1.131.22 BetVictor82.0%+6.7
Total goalsUnder 1.511.4%8.795.40 BetVictor18.5%-7.1
Total goalsOver 2.571.0%1.411.70 Bet36558.8%+12.1
Total goalsUnder 2.529.0%3.442.62 Bet36538.2%-9.1
Total goalsOver 3.550.0%2.002.25 BetVictor44.4%+5.5
Total goalsUnder 3.550.0%2.001.60 BetVictor62.5%-12.5
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes71.1%1.411.72 Betano58.1%+12.9
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No28.9%3.462.30 BetVictor43.5%-14.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Morecambe v Darlington 1883: too close to call

Our model makes Morecambe 41% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 23% and Darlington 1883 at 36%. The goal projection is 1.91 for Morecambe against 1.77 for Darlington 1883 — a slight edge to Morecambe on expected output. A combined 3.67 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 71%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 9%
2-1 8%
1-2 8%
2-2 7%
3-1 5%

This season

Season records for Morecambe and Darlington 1883
Morecambe Darlington 1883
3Played2
2-0-1W-D-L1-0-1
2.00Pts / game1.50
2.00Goals for / game2.00
0.67Goals against / game2.50
67%Over 2.5100%
33%BTTS50%
67%Clean sheets0%
0%Failed to score50%
2-0-0Home record0-0-0
0-0-1Away record1-0-1
L1StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Morecambe · Darlington 1883

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.0Shots—
10.0Shots on target—
5.0Corners—
1.00Cards—
—Fouls—
63Possession %—
—xG—
1 matchessample—

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.0Shots—
8.0Shots on target—
4.0Corners—
4.00Cards—
—Fouls—
37Possession %—
—xG—
1 matchessample—

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
MorecambeMetricDarlington 1883
2.20 (better)Goals scored1.60
0.60 (better)Goals conceded2.40
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target
Total shots
Touches in opp. box
Corners
Possession %
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
Yellow cards
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Morecambe wins
1
Draws
0
Darlington 1883 wins
0
Goals / game
3.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
0%