Montpellier won 4 of the last 5LWWWW3rd2–1RED Star FC 93 won 1 of the last 5LLLLW8th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Montpellier
RED Star FC 93
6
Shots
14
3
Shots on target
5
3
Corners
2
19
Fouls
21
3
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
1
1
Offsides
0
438
Passes
393
53%
Possession %
47%
0.62
xG
1.09
40%
30%
30%
1 · MontpellierXRED Star FC 93 · 2
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
20%
Both score
46%
Model pick
Montpellier 40%
Likely score
1-1 14%
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.04
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Montpellier
40.1%
2.49
2.45 Betano
40.8%
-0.7
Match result
Draw
29.7%
3.37
3.50 Betfair
28.6%
+1.1
Match result
RED Star FC 93
30.2%
3.31
3.05 Betano
32.8%
-2.6
Total goals
Over 1.5
67.0%
1.49
1.27 Betano
78.7%
-11.7
Total goals
Under 1.5
33.0%
3.03
4.10 Betfair
24.4%
+8.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
39.7%
2.52
1.87 Betfair
53.5%
-13.7
Total goals
Under 2.5
60.3%
1.66
2.00 Bet365
50.0%
+10.3
Total goals
Over 3.5
19.6%
5.11
3.25 Bet365
30.8%
-11.2
Total goals
Under 3.5
80.4%
1.24
1.42 Betano
70.4%
+10.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
46.5%
2.15
1.75 Betano
57.1%
-10.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
53.5%
1.87
2.25 Betfair
44.4%
+9.1
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Montpellier favoured against RED Star FC 93
Our model makes Montpellier 40% to win this Ligue 2 fixture, with the draw at 30% and RED Star FC 93 at 30%. The goal projection is 1.24 for Montpellier against 1.04 for RED Star FC 93 — a slight edge to Montpellier on expected output. A combined 2.27 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 40% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Montpellier
Metric
RED Star FC 93
1.00
Goals scored
2.00 (better)
0.80 (better)
Goals conceded
1.60
—
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
4.60
Shots on target
7.00 (better)
11.80
Total shots
17.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.60
Corners
5.60
62.8 (better)
Possession %
53.4
587 (better)
Passes
469
—
Tackles
—
15.20 (better)
Fouls
20.80
0.50 (better)
Offsides
2.40
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00 (better)
Yellow cards
2.80
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.33
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Montpellier v 
RED Star FC 93