Monaco v Toulouse

7th2–212th

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Monaco		Toulouse
16	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	4
4	Corners	4
10	Fouls	16
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
646	Passes	464
58%	Possession %	42%
1.25	xG	1.49

Over 1.5: 86%
Over 2.5: 67%
Over 3.5: 45%
Both score: 65%

Model pick: Monaco 55%
Likely score: 2-1 10%
Expected goals: 2.13 – 1.32

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Monaco -0.5

1.70Betano · fair 1.52 · qualifies at 1.57+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Monaco -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.70 with Betano — Monaco must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 55% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 73%; we judge it at 66%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.52. The offered 1.70 implies only 59%, so the price is 11.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Monaco 2.13, Toulouse 1.32.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Over 3.5

2.67Betano · fair 2.50 · qualifies at 2.60+ · 1.04u

Why this price?

Back over 3.5 goals at 2.67 with Betano — 4 goals or more in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 45% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 37%; we judge it at 40%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.50. The offered 2.67 implies only 37%, so the price is 6.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.04 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Monaco 2.13, Toulouse 1.32.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Monaco	55.4%	1.80	1.70 Betano	58.8%	-3.4
Match result	Draw	21.8%	4.58	4.40 Betfair	22.7%	-0.9
Match result	Toulouse	22.8%	4.39	5.25 Bet365	19.0%	+3.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	86.4%	1.16	1.20 Bet365	83.3%	+3.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	13.6%	7.33	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-6.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	66.9%	1.50	1.67 Betano	59.9%	+7.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	33.1%	3.02	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-7.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	45.2%	2.21	2.50 Bet365	40.0%	+5.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	54.8%	1.82	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-7.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	65.1%	1.54	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	+5.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	34.9%	2.86	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-7.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Monaco favoured against Toulouse

Our model makes Monaco 55% to win this Ligue 1 fixture, with the draw at 22% and Toulouse at 23%. The goal projection is 2.13 for Monaco against 1.32 for Toulouse — a substantial edge to Monaco on expected output. A combined 3.45 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 10%; 1-1 9%; 2-0 7%; 3-1 7%; 2-2 6%

This season

Season records for Monaco and Toulouse
Monaco		Toulouse
10	Played	10
4-4-2	W-D-L	3-4-3
1.60	Pts / game	1.30
1.30	Goals for / game	1.50
1.10	Goals against / game	1.40
40%	Over 2.5	60%
70%	BTTS	50%
20%	Clean sheets	20%
10%	Failed to score	40%
2-2-0	Home record	2-1-2
2-2-2	Away record	1-3-1
D1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Monaco · Toulouse

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.7	Shots	11.0
4.2	Shots on target	4.8
4.2	Corners	4.3
2.00	Cards	2.67
13.5	Fouls	15.2
56	Possession %	52
1.26	xG	1.53
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.8	Shots	12.5
4.7	Shots on target	3.2
4.5	Corners	3.3
2.03	Cards	2.00
13.2	Fouls	13.8
44	Possession %	48
1.48	xG	1.15
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Monaco	Metric	Toulouse
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.40
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
1.26	Expected goals (xG)	2.19 (better)
	Big chances
4.40	Shots on target	4.60 (better)
10.20	Total shots	14.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.80	Corners	4.60 (better)
48.2	Possession %	52.6 (better)
505	Passes	506 (better)
	Tackles
11.00 (better)	Fouls	16.80
2.75	Offsides	1.80 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.40 (better)	Yellow cards	1.60
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Monaco wins: 1
Draws: 2
Toulouse wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Monaco v Toulouse2–22026-10-10
Toulouse v Monaco2–22026-04-25
Monaco v Toulouse1–02025-10-25

Ligue 1 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	10	7	2	1	+12	23	Paris Saint Germain won 5 of the last 5
2	Lille	10	6	3	1	+7	21	Lille won 3 of the last 5
3	Paris FC	10	6	2	2	+7	20	Paris FC won 3 of the last 5
4	Marseille	10	6	0	4	+8	18	Marseille won 5 of the last 5
5	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+6	17	Lyon won 2 of the last 5
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	+3	17	Nice won 4 of the last 5
7	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Monaco won 0 of the last 5
8	Rennes	10	5	1	4	0	16	Rennes won 2 of the last 5
9	Stade Brestois 29	10	4	3	3	+6	15	Stade Brestois 29 won 3 of the last 5
10	Lorient	10	4	3	3	+1	15	Lorient won 3 of the last 5
11	Lens	10	4	1	5	+2	13	Lens won 3 of the last 5
12	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	+1	13	Toulouse won 2 of the last 5
13	Strasbourg	10	3	1	6	-4	10	Strasbourg won 1 of the last 5
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	-11	10	Auxerre won 1 of the last 5
15	Le Mans	10	1	5	4	-7	8	Le Mans won 0 of the last 5
16	Angers	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Angers won 0 of the last 5
17	Estac Troyes	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Estac Troyes won 1 of the last 5
18	Le Havre	10	0	2	8	-13	2	Le Havre won 0 of the last 5