Monaco v 
FC Nordsjaelland
Match statistics
| Monaco | FC Nordsjaelland | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Shots | 3 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| — | Red cards | — |
| 5 | Offsides | 1 |
| 757 | Passes | 559 |
| 58% | Possession % | 42% |
| 2.37 | xG | 0.05 |
- Over 1.5
- 80%
- Over 2.5
- 57%
- Over 3.5
- 34%
- Both score
- 59%
- Model pick
- Monaco 44%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.63 – 1.32
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Monaco -1
Why this price?
Back Monaco -1 on the Asian handicap at 1.75 with Bet365 — Monaco must win by more than 1 goal.
Our model puts the chance at 29% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 85%; we judge it at 63%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.59. The offered 1.75 implies only 57%, so the price is 10.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Monaco 1.63, FC Nordsjaelland 1.32.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Monaco | 44.2% | 2.26 | 1.50 Betano | 66.7% | -22.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 25.3% | 3.95 | 5.40 Dafabet | 18.5% | +6.8 |
| Match result | FC Nordsjaelland | 30.5% | 3.28 | 7.00 Betfair | 14.3% | +16.2 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 79.9% | 1.25 | 1.14 Betano | 87.7% | -7.8 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 20.1% | 4.97 | 6.50 Bet365 | 15.4% | +4.7 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 56.5% | 1.77 | 1.45 Betano | 69.0% | -12.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 43.5% | 2.30 | 2.92 Betano | 34.2% | +9.2 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 34.1% | 2.93 | 2.12 Betano | 47.2% | -13.0 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 65.9% | 1.52 | 1.75 Betano | 57.1% | +8.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 59.5% | 1.68 | 1.60 Betano | 62.5% | -3.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 40.5% | 2.47 | 2.55 Betfair | 39.2% | +1.3 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Monaco favoured against FC Nordsjaelland
Our model makes Monaco 44% to win this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture, with the draw at 25% and FC Nordsjaelland at 30%. The goal projection is 1.63 for Monaco against 1.32 for FC Nordsjaelland — a clear edge to Monaco on expected output. A combined 2.95 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-0 8%
- 1-2 7%
- 2-0 7%
This season
| Monaco | FC Nordsjaelland | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Played | 14 |
| 4-4-2 | W-D-L | 6-5-3 |
| 1.60 | Pts / game | 1.64 |
| 1.30 | Goals for / game | 1.86 |
| 1.10 | Goals against / game | 1.29 |
| 40% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 70% | BTTS | 57% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 36% |
| 10% | Failed to score | 14% |
| 2-2-0 | Home record | 4-1-1 |
| 2-2-2 | Away record | 2-4-2 |
| D1 | Streak | W1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Monaco · FC Nordsjaelland
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.0 | Shots | 14.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.7 | Shots on target | 5.2 |
| 4.0 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 1.89 | Cards | 2.83 |
| 12.6 | Fouls | 10.8 |
| 55 | Possession % | 54 |
| 1.39 | xG | 1.76 |
| 9 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 11.9 | Shots | 13.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.9 | Shots on target | 5.4 |
| 5.9 | Corners | 2.6 |
| 2.09 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 12.1 | Fouls | 11.8 |
| 45 | Possession % | 46 |
| 1.23 | xG | 1.61 |
| 9 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Monaco | Metric | FC Nordsjaelland |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored | 1.60 |
| 1.00 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.40 |
| 1.32 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.33 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.20 | Shots on target | 5.25 (better) |
| 14.60 (better) | Total shots | 13.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.20 | Corners | 6.50 (better) |
| 55.6 | Possession % | 56.0 (better) |
| 561 (better) | Passes | 512 |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.20 (better) | Fouls | 14.25 |
| 1.20 (better) | Offsides | 2.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.60 (better) | Yellow cards | 4.00 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.33 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Monaco wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- FC Nordsjaelland wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Monaco v FC Nordsjaelland2–02026-11-05
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 9 | FC Lugano won 3 of the last 3 |
| 2 | Panathinaikos | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 | Panathinaikos won 3 of the last 3 |
| 3 | Twente | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 | Twente won 3 of the last 3 |
| 4 | Monaco | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 | Monaco won 3 of the last 3 |
| 5 | Brighton | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 | Brighton won 2 of the last 3 |
| 6 | Brann | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | Brann won 2 of the last 3 |
| 7 | FC Copenhagen | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | FC Copenhagen won 2 of the last 3 |
| 8 | Universitatea Craiova | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | Universitatea Craiova won 2 of the last 3 |
| 9 | Mjallby AIF | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | Mjallby AIF won 2 of the last 3 |
| 10 | St. Truiden | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 | St. Truiden won 2 of the last 3 |
| 11 | Ajax | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +6 | 6 | Ajax won 2 of the last 3 |
| 12 | Trabzonspor | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 6 | Trabzonspor won 2 of the last 3 |
| 13 | HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 | HNK Hajduk Split won 2 of the last 3 |
| 14 | SC Freiburg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 | SC Freiburg won 2 of the last 3 |
| 15 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | FK Crvena Zvezda won 1 of the last 3 |
| 16 | Atalanta | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | Atalanta won 1 of the last 3 |
| 17 | SC Braga | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | SC Braga won 1 of the last 3 |
| 18 | Gent | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | Gent won 1 of the last 3 |
| 19 | FC Thun | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | FC Thun won 1 of the last 3 |
| 20 | Riga | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Riga won 0 of the last 3 |
| 21 | Borac Banja Luka | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 | Borac Banja Luka won 1 of the last 3 |
| 22 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 | Lincoln Red Imps FC won 1 of the last 3 |
| 23 | FK Jablonec | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | FK Jablonec won 0 of the last 3 |
| 24 | Aarhus | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | Aarhus won 0 of the last 3 |
| 25 | FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | FC Nordsjaelland won 0 of the last 3 |
| 26 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë won 0 of the last 3 |
| 27 | Kairat Almaty | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 2 | Kairat Almaty won 0 of the last 3 |
| 28 | CSKA Sofia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 | CSKA Sofia won 0 of the last 3 |
| 29 | FC Iberia 1999 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 | FC Iberia 1999 won 0 of the last 3 |
| 30 | Getafe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | Getafe won 0 of the last 3 |
| 31 | Pafos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | Pafos won 0 of the last 3 |
| 32 | Heart Of Midlothian | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | Heart Of Midlothian won 0 of the last 3 |
| 33 | KuPS | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | KuPS won 0 of the last 3 |
| 34 | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 | FC Midtjylland won 0 of the last 3 |
| 35 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 | Inter Club d'Escaldes won 0 of the last 3 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 0 | Kauno Žalgiris won 0 of the last 3 |