Molde v Start

5th6–116th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Molde		Start
21	Shots	10
12	Shots on target	3
5	Corners	6
6	Fouls	10
2	Yellow cards	2
—	Red cards	—
0	Offsides	2
660	Passes	298
69%	Possession %	31%
3.67	xG	1.74

Over 1.5: 89%
Over 2.5: 72%
Over 3.5: 51%
Both score: 64%

Model pick: Molde 67%
Likely score: 2-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.55 – 1.16

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Molde	67.0%	1.49	1.33 Bet365	75.2%	-8.2
Match result	Draw	18.0%	5.54	6.00 Dafabet	16.7%	+1.4
Match result	Start	15.0%	6.67	8.50 BetVictor	11.8%	+3.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	88.9%	1.12	1.10 Bet365	90.9%	-2.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	11.1%	9.04	7.00 Bet365	14.3%	-3.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	71.7%	1.40	1.36 Bet365	73.5%	-1.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	28.3%	3.53	3.25 Betfair	30.8%	-2.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	50.9%	1.97	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 3.5	49.1%	2.04	1.93 Betano	51.8%	-2.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	63.8%	1.57	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	+2.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	36.2%	2.76	2.30 William Hill	43.5%	-7.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Molde favoured against Start

Our model makes Molde 67% to win this Eliteserien fixture, with the draw at 18% and Start at 15%. The goal projection is 2.55 for Molde against 1.16 for Start — a commanding edge to Molde on expected output. A combined 3.71 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 72% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Molde is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 33% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 9%; 2-0 8%; 3-1 8%; 1-1 8%; 3-0 7%

This season

Season records for Molde and Start
Molde		Start
26	Played	26
13-5-8	W-D-L	5-4-17
1.69	Pts / game	0.73
2.46	Goals for / game	1.04
1.69	Goals against / game	2.27
73%	Over 2.5	58%
77%	BTTS	58%
15%	Clean sheets	12%
8%	Failed to score	31%
9-1-3	Home record	4-3-6
4-4-5	Away record	1-1-11
D1	Streak	L2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Molde · Start

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
22.0	Shots	12.2
9.4	Shots on target	2.2
7.4	Corners	4.7
2.40	Cards	1.90
10.6	Fouls	11.8
65	Possession %	40
3.25	xG	1.21
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.4	Shots	19.0
5.4	Shots on target	5.7
5.8	Corners	5.0
1.80	Cards	1.33
11.2	Fouls	10.3
35	Possession %	60
1.86	xG	2.42
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Molde	Metric	Start
3.20 (better)	Goals scored	2.40
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
2.92 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.23
	Big chances
6.67 (better)	Shots on target	3.00
18.67 (better)	Total shots	14.50
	Touches in opp. box
7.00 (better)	Corners	6.50
64.0 (better)	Possession %	39.5
581 (better)	Passes	396
	Tackles
12.00	Fouls	10.50 (better)
3.00	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
0.67 (better)	Yellow cards	1.50
0.00 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Molde wins: 1
Draws: 1
Start wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.50
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 100%

Molde v Start6–12026-10-18
Start v Molde1–12026-04-19

Eliteserien table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Viking	26	20	2	4	+42	62	Viking won 4 of the last 5
2	Bodo/Glimt	26	20	2	4	+40	62	Bodo/Glimt won 4 of the last 5
3	Rosenborg	26	14	4	8	+21	46	Rosenborg won 4 of the last 5
4	Lillestrom	26	14	3	9	+4	45	Lillestrom won 4 of the last 5
5	Molde	26	13	5	8	+20	44	Molde won 2 of the last 5
6	Tromso	26	11	7	8	+3	40	Tromso won 0 of the last 5
7	Brann	26	10	3	13	+3	33	Brann won 1 of the last 5
8	Valerenga	26	9	5	12	-4	32	Valerenga won 3 of the last 5
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	26	8	7	11	-10	31	Sarpsborg 08 FF won 2 of the last 5
10	KFUM Oslo	26	8	7	11	-13	31	KFUM Oslo won 1 of the last 5
11	Ham-Kam	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Ham-Kam won 2 of the last 5
12	Fredrikstad	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Fredrikstad won 0 of the last 5
13	Sandefjord	26	7	7	12	-8	28	Sandefjord won 1 of the last 5
14	Kristiansund BK	26	7	5	14	-21	26	Kristiansund BK won 2 of the last 5
15	Aalesund	26	5	9	12	-15	24	Aalesund won 1 of the last 5
16	Start	26	5	4	17	-32	19	Start won 1 of the last 5