Molde v Fredrikstad

5th5–112th

18:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Molde		Fredrikstad
19	Shots	14
10	Shots on target	6
5	Corners	9
10	Fouls	10
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
726	Passes	445
62%	Possession %	38%
3.14	xG	2.03

Over 1.5: 83%
Over 2.5: 62%
Over 3.5: 39%
Both score: 61%

Model pick: Molde 54%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.96 – 1.23

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Molde	54.0%	1.85	1.42 Betano	70.4%	-16.5
Match result	Draw	22.9%	4.37	5.20 Dafabet	19.2%	+3.7
Match result	Fredrikstad	23.1%	4.32	7.00 Bet365	14.3%	+8.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	83.2%	1.20	1.13 Betano	88.5%	-5.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	16.8%	5.94	6.50 Bet365	15.4%	+1.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	61.7%	1.62	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-7.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	38.3%	2.61	2.88 Bet365	34.7%	+3.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	39.4%	2.54	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	-8.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	60.6%	1.65	1.78 Betano	56.2%	+4.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.2%	1.64	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-2.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.8%	2.58	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-2.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Molde favoured against Fredrikstad

Our model makes Molde 54% to win this Eliteserien fixture, with the draw at 23% and Fredrikstad at 23%. The goal projection is 1.96 for Molde against 1.23 for Fredrikstad — a substantial edge to Molde on expected output. A combined 3.18 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 8%; 1-0 8%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Molde and Fredrikstad
Molde		Fredrikstad
26	Played	26
13-5-8	W-D-L	8-6-12
1.69	Pts / game	1.15
2.46	Goals for / game	1.19
1.69	Goals against / game	1.77
73%	Over 2.5	58%
77%	BTTS	65%
15%	Clean sheets	12%
8%	Failed to score	23%
9-1-3	Home record	5-4-4
4-4-5	Away record	3-2-8
D1	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Molde · Fredrikstad

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
22.0	Shots	15.3
9.4	Shots on target	4.5
7.4	Corners	5.0
2.40	Cards	1.67
10.6	Fouls	11.0
65	Possession %	51
3.25	xG	1.43
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.4	Shots	14.5
5.4	Shots on target	5.5
5.8	Corners	5.8
1.80	Cards	2.67
11.2	Fouls	10.2
35	Possession %	49
1.86	xG	1.89
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Molde	Metric	Fredrikstad
3.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.25
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.25
2.94 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.90
	Big chances
9.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.00
21.00 (better)	Total shots	14.33
	Touches in opp. box
6.00 (better)	Corners	4.67
59.0 (better)	Possession %	58.3
571	Passes	644 (better)
	Tackles
13.00	Fouls	11.00 (better)
2.00	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.67 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Molde wins: 1
Draws: 0
Fredrikstad wins: 2
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Molde v Fredrikstad5–12026-10-25
Molde v Fredrikstad1–22025-09-13
Fredrikstad v Molde4–22025-07-12

Eliteserien table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Viking	26	20	2	4	+42	62	Viking won 4 of the last 5
2	Bodo/Glimt	26	20	2	4	+40	62	Bodo/Glimt won 4 of the last 5
3	Rosenborg	26	14	4	8	+21	46	Rosenborg won 4 of the last 5
4	Lillestrom	26	14	3	9	+4	45	Lillestrom won 4 of the last 5
5	Molde	26	13	5	8	+20	44	Molde won 2 of the last 5
6	Tromso	26	11	7	8	+3	40	Tromso won 0 of the last 5
7	Brann	26	10	3	13	+3	33	Brann won 1 of the last 5
8	Valerenga	26	9	5	12	-4	32	Valerenga won 3 of the last 5
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	26	8	7	11	-10	31	Sarpsborg 08 FF won 2 of the last 5
10	KFUM Oslo	26	8	7	11	-13	31	KFUM Oslo won 1 of the last 5
11	Ham-Kam	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Ham-Kam won 2 of the last 5
12	Fredrikstad	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Fredrikstad won 0 of the last 5
13	Sandefjord	26	7	7	12	-8	28	Sandefjord won 1 of the last 5
14	Kristiansund BK	26	7	5	14	-21	26	Kristiansund BK won 2 of the last 5
15	Aalesund	26	5	9	12	-15	24	Aalesund won 1 of the last 5
16	Start	26	5	4	17	-32	19	Start won 1 of the last 5