Modena v Mantova

2nd1–14th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Modena		Mantova
10	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	3
0	Corners	7
14	Fouls	23
3	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	0
443	Passes	388
53%	Possession %	47%
1.36	xG	0.64

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 54%
Over 3.5: 32%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Modena 44%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.58 – 1.28

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Modena	43.8%	2.28	1.83 Betano	54.6%	-10.8
Match result	Draw	25.8%	3.87	3.80 Betano	26.3%	-0.5
Match result	Mantova	30.4%	3.29	4.75 Betfair	21.1%	+9.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.4%	1.28	1.24 Betano	80.6%	-2.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.6%	4.63	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	-1.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	54.4%	1.84	1.72 Betano	58.1%	-3.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	45.6%	2.19	2.18 Betano	45.9%	-0.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	32.0%	3.12	3.00 Betano	33.3%	-1.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.0%	1.47	1.47 Betano	68.0%	-0.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.8%	1.73	1.72 Betano	58.1%	-0.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.2%	2.37	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	-1.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Modena favoured against Mantova

Our model makes Modena 44% to win this Serie B fixture, with the draw at 26% and Mantova at 30%. The goal projection is 1.58 for Modena against 1.28 for Mantova — a clear edge to Modena on expected output. A combined 2.86 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 8%; 1-2 7%; 2-0 7%

This season

Season records for Modena and Mantova
Modena		Mantova
11	Played	11
7-2-2	W-D-L	5-4-2
2.09	Pts / game	1.73
1.82	Goals for / game	1.36
0.91	Goals against / game	1.00
64%	Over 2.5	36%
64%	BTTS	55%
27%	Clean sheets	27%
9%	Failed to score	27%
3-1-1	Home record	2-2-2
4-1-1	Away record	3-2-0
W1	Streak	D2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Modena · Mantova

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.1	Shots	14.3
5.0	Shots on target	4.4
4.0	Corners	4.3
1.57	Cards	2.43
10.9	Fouls	15.4
59	Possession %	54
1.60	xG	1.62
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.0	Shots	12.0
3.3	Shots on target	4.0
3.4	Corners	3.3
3.17	Cards	2.71
15.1	Fouls	13.4
41	Possession %	46
0.88	xG	1.39
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Modena	Metric	Mantova
1.40	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.63	Expected goals (xG)	1.72 (better)
	Big chances
7.20 (better)	Shots on target	4.80
24.00 (better)	Total shots	12.80
	Touches in opp. box
6.80 (better)	Corners	4.60
58.2 (better)	Possession %	50.2
496 (better)	Passes	444
	Tackles
12.40 (better)	Fouls	12.60
3.25	Offsides	1.40 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.60 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Modena wins: 2
Draws: 1
Mantova wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 100%

Modena v Mantova1–12026-10-31
Modena v Mantova2–12026-03-21
Mantova v Modena1–32025-09-20

Serie B table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Palermo	11	8	3	0	+12	27	Palermo won 3 of the last 5
2	Modena	11	7	2	2	+10	23	Modena won 3 of the last 5
3	Ascoli	11	5	5	1	+10	20	Ascoli won 2 of the last 5
4	Mantova	11	5	4	2	+4	19	Mantova won 1 of the last 5
5	Hellas Verona	11	4	4	3	+6	16	Hellas Verona won 2 of the last 5
6	Avellino	11	4	4	3	+5	16	Avellino won 1 of the last 5
7	Benevento	11	4	4	3	+4	16	Benevento won 1 of the last 5
8	Pisa	11	4	4	3	+3	16	Pisa won 1 of the last 5
9	Juve Stabia	11	4	4	3	+1	16	Juve Stabia won 3 of the last 5
10	Cremonese	11	4	3	4	+2	15	Cremonese won 3 of the last 5
11	Sudtirol	11	3	6	2	+1	15	Sudtirol won 0 of the last 5
12	Padova	11	4	3	4	-1	15	Padova won 2 of the last 5
13	Cesena	11	3	6	2	-2	15	Cesena won 2 of the last 5
14	Sampdoria	11	3	2	6	-7	11	Sampdoria won 2 of the last 5
15	Arezzo	11	3	2	6	-11	11	Arezzo won 1 of the last 5
16	Virtus Entella	11	2	4	5	-3	10	Virtus Entella won 1 of the last 5
17	Carrarese	11	3	1	7	-5	10	Carrarese won 2 of the last 5
18	Empoli	11	2	3	6	-7	9	Empoli won 0 of the last 5
19	Vicenza Virtus	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Vicenza Virtus won 1 of the last 5
20	Catanzaro	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Catanzaro won 0 of the last 5