Mlada Boleslav v Teplice

3rd1–06th

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Mlada Boleslav		Teplice
9	Shots	20
3	Shots on target	2
3	Corners	8
5	Fouls	13
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
523	Passes	431
52%	Possession %	48%
1.04	xG	1.63

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 57%
Over 3.5: 35%
Both score: 60%

Model pick: Mlada Boleslav 40%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.55 – 1.42

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Mlada Boleslav	40.2%	2.49	2.13 Dafabet	46.9%	-6.7
Match result	Draw	25.5%	3.92	3.75 Betfair	26.7%	-1.2
Match result	Teplice	34.3%	2.92	3.40 Betano	29.4%	+4.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.2%	1.25	1.24 Betano	80.6%	-0.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.8%	5.04	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	-2.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	57.0%	1.75	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-0.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	43.0%	2.32	2.25 Bet365	44.4%	-1.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	34.6%	2.89	2.80 Betano	35.7%	-1.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	65.4%	1.53	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-1.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	60.3%	1.66	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	+0.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	39.7%	2.52	2.38 Bet365	42.0%	-2.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Mlada Boleslav v Teplice: too close to call

Our model makes Mlada Boleslav 40% to win this Chance Liga fixture, with the draw at 26% and Teplice at 34%. The goal projection is 1.55 for Mlada Boleslav against 1.42 for Teplice — a slight edge to Mlada Boleslav on expected output. A combined 2.97 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 7%; 0-1 7%

This season

Season records for Mlada Boleslav and Teplice
Mlada Boleslav		Teplice
14	Played	14
7-4-3	W-D-L	6-3-5
1.79	Pts / game	1.50
1.57	Goals for / game	1.57
1.07	Goals against / game	1.57
50%	Over 2.5	43%
43%	BTTS	50%
36%	Clean sheets	29%
29%	Failed to score	29%
6-0-0	Home record	2-3-3
1-4-3	Away record	4-0-2
D1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Mlada Boleslav · Teplice

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.3	Shots	18.4
4.2	Shots on target	4.8
5.8	Corners	6.2
2.33	Cards	1.80
8.2	Fouls	14.8
55	Possession %	46
1.33	xG	2.09
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.8	Shots	19.0
4.2	Shots on target	6.8
6.7	Corners	5.6
3.17	Cards	2.00
13.5	Fouls	10.0
46	Possession %	54
1.66	xG	1.78
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Mlada Boleslav	Metric	Teplice
2.40	Goals scored	2.40
0.80	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
1.62 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.18
	Big chances
5.67 (better)	Shots on target	3.00
11.33	Total shots	14.50 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.33 (better)	Corners	3.00
54.3 (better)	Possession %	42.7
450 (better)	Passes	222
	Tackles
9.00 (better)	Fouls	17.00
1.67	Offsides	1.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.67 (better)	Yellow cards	2.33
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Mlada Boleslav wins: 2
Draws: 1
Teplice wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 25%
Both score: 25%

Chance Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Slavia Praha	14	10	4	0	+28	34	Slavia Praha won 3 of the last 5
2	Slovan Liberec	13	8	2	3	+8	26	Slovan Liberec won 2 of the last 5
3	Mlada Boleslav	14	7	4	3	+7	25	Mlada Boleslav won 2 of the last 5
4	Sparta Praha	14	7	3	4	+12	24	Sparta Praha won 2 of the last 5
5	Sigma Olomouc	14	7	3	4	+2	24	Sigma Olomouc won 2 of the last 5
6	Teplice	14	6	3	5	0	21	Teplice won 1 of the last 5
7	FK Jablonec	14	6	3	5	-2	21	FK Jablonec won 2 of the last 5
8	Plzen	14	5	5	4	+7	20	Plzen won 3 of the last 5
9	Bohemians 1905	14	5	5	4	0	20	Bohemians 1905 won 2 of the last 5
10	Zbrojovka Brno	14	6	2	6	-5	20	Zbrojovka Brno won 1 of the last 5
11	Hradec Králové	14	5	3	6	-1	18	Hradec Králové won 1 of the last 5
12	Pardubice	14	5	2	7	-1	17	Pardubice won 3 of the last 5
13	Baník Ostrava	13	4	2	7	-13	14	Baník Ostrava won 1 of the last 5
14	Artis	14	2	4	8	-13	10	Artis won 1 of the last 5
15	Slovácko	14	2	4	8	-13	10	Slovácko won 2 of the last 5
16	Zlin	14	0	3	11	-16	3	Zlin won 0 of the last 5