Mlada Boleslav won 2 of the last 5DWDWL3rd3–1Hradec Králové won 1 of the last 5WLLDL11th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Mlada Boleslav
Hradec Králové
18
Shots
16
8
Shots on target
6
8
Corners
7
6
Fouls
12
1
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
2
574
Passes
314
60%
Possession %
40%
2.45
xG
1.09
38%
29%
33%
1 · Mlada BoleslavXHradec Králové · 2
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
21%
Both score
48%
Model pick
Mlada Boleslav 38%
Likely score
1-1 14%
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.12
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Mlada Boleslav
37.7%
2.65
2.32 Betano
43.1%
-5.4
Match result
Draw
29.3%
3.41
3.70 BetVictor
27.0%
+2.3
Match result
Hradec Králové
33.0%
3.03
3.05 Betano
32.8%
+0.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
68.5%
1.46
1.22 Betano
82.0%
-13.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
31.5%
3.18
4.80 BetVictor
20.8%
+10.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
41.5%
2.41
1.82 Betano
54.9%
-13.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
58.5%
1.71
2.35 Betano
42.6%
+16.0
Total goals
Over 3.5
20.9%
4.78
2.95 Betano
33.9%
-13.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
79.1%
1.26
1.57 Betano
63.7%
+15.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
48.2%
2.08
1.62 Betano
61.7%
-13.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
51.8%
1.93
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
+12.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Mlada Boleslav v Hradec Králové: too close to call
Our model makes Mlada Boleslav 38% to win this Chance Liga fixture, with the draw at 29% and Hradec Králové at 33%. The goal projection is 1.22 for Mlada Boleslav against 1.12 for Hradec Králové — almost nothing to Mlada Boleslav on expected output. A combined 2.34 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 41% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 14%
1-0 11%
0-0 10%
0-1 10%
2-1 8%
This season
Season records for Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Mlada Boleslav
Metric
Hradec Králové
1.20
Goals scored
1.20
1.00 (better)
Goals conceded
1.40
1.14
Expected goals (xG)
1.14
—
Big chances *
—
4.25 (better)
Shots on target
1.67
12.50 (better)
Total shots
9.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.50 (better)
Corners
2.50
57.8 (better)
Possession %
50.0
541 (better)
Passes
256
—
Tackles
—
6.75 (better)
Fouls
11.50
0.67
Offsides
0.50 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.25 (better)
Yellow cards
2.67
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.33
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Mlada Boleslav v 
Hradec Králové