Mjallby AIF won 1 of the last 5DDWLL12th0–2Hammarby FF won 5 of the last 5WWWWW1st
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Mjallby AIF
Hammarby FF
5
Shots
19
2
Shots on target
3
5
Corners
8
11
Fouls
12
1
Yellow cards
4
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
1
318
Passes
630
34%
Possession %
66%
0.40
xG
1.33
22%
26%
52%
1 · Mjallby AIFXHammarby FF · 2
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Both score
52%
Model pick
Hammarby FF 52%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.66
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Mjallby AIF
22.1%
4.51
6.70 Betano
14.9%
+7.2
Match result
Draw
25.6%
3.91
4.80 Dafabet
20.8%
+4.8
Match result
Hammarby FF
52.3%
1.91
1.53 William Hill
65.4%
-13.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
74.9%
1.33
1.19 Betano
84.0%
-9.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
25.1%
3.99
5.00 Bet365
20.0%
+5.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
49.6%
2.02
1.60 Betano
62.5%
-12.9
Total goals
Under 2.5
50.4%
1.98
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
+9.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
27.6%
3.62
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
-13.2
Total goals
Under 3.5
72.4%
1.38
1.57 Betano
63.7%
+8.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
51.7%
1.93
1.75 Bet365
57.1%
-5.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
48.3%
2.07
2.15 William Hill
46.5%
+1.8
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Hammarby FF favoured against Mjallby AIF
Our model makes Mjallby AIF 22% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 26% and Hammarby FF at 52%. The goal projection is 1.00 for Mjallby AIF against 1.66 for Hammarby FF — a substantial edge to Hammarby FF on expected output. A combined 2.66 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Mjallby AIF
Metric
Hammarby FF
0.80
Goals scored
1.20 (better)
1.20
Goals conceded
0.60 (better)
1.65
Expected goals (xG)
2.49 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
6.50
Shots on target
8.75 (better)
14.25
Total shots
19.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.75
Corners
6.25 (better)
44.8
Possession %
63.8 (better)
400
Passes
648 (better)
—
Tackles
—
14.25
Fouls
14.00 (better)
0.50 (better)
Offsides
0.75
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.50
Yellow cards
2.00 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Mjallby AIF v 
Hammarby FF