Mito Hollyhock v Urawa

19th0–19th

07:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Mito Hollyhock		Urawa
1	Shots	28
1	Shots on target	6
0	Corners	13
6	Fouls	7
1	Yellow cards	1
1	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
134	Passes	769
14%	Possession %	86%
0.07	xG	2.37

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 57%
Over 3.5: 35%
Both score: 60%

Model pick: Urawa 47%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.28 – 1.70

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Urawa +0.25

1.70BetVictor · fair 1.53 · qualifies at 1.57+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Urawa +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.70 with BetVictor — Urawa starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 68% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 64%; we judge it at 65%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.53. The offered 1.70 implies only 59%, so the price is 11.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Mito Hollyhock 1.28, Urawa 1.70.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Mito Hollyhock	28.4%	3.52	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	+0.7
Match result	Draw	24.9%	4.01	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	-2.8
Match result	Urawa	46.6%	2.15	2.10 BetVictor	47.6%	-1.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.3%	1.25	1.32 Betano	75.8%	+4.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.7%	5.08	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	-8.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	57.2%	1.75	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	+5.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	42.8%	2.34	1.98 Betano	50.5%	-7.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	34.8%	2.87	3.50 Betfair	28.6%	+6.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	65.2%	1.53	1.32 Betano	75.8%	-10.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	59.6%	1.68	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+4.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	40.4%	2.47	2.02 Betano	49.5%	-9.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Urawa favoured against Mito Hollyhock

Our model makes Mito Hollyhock 28% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Urawa at 47%. The goal projection is 1.28 for Mito Hollyhock against 1.70 for Urawa — a clear edge to Urawa on expected output. A combined 2.98 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 0-1 8%; 0-2 7%; 2-1 7%

This season

Season records for Mito Hollyhock and Urawa
Mito Hollyhock		Urawa
14	Played	14
2-3-9	W-D-L	7-1-6
0.64	Pts / game	1.57
0.86	Goals for / game	1.64
1.86	Goals against / game	2.07
43%	Over 2.5	79%
50%	BTTS	64%
0%	Clean sheets	21%
50%	Failed to score	14%
1-2-4	Home record	4-0-2
1-1-5	Away record	3-1-4
L8	Streak	D1

2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. Mito Hollyhock · Urawa

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
7.2	Shots	18.2
1.3	Shots on target	4.5
3.0	Corners	6.7
1.17	Cards	0.67
9.2	Fouls	8.3
42	Possession %	59
0.46	xG	1.53
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.0	Shots	12.0
5.8	Shots on target	3.8
5.3	Corners	2.8
0.83	Cards	1.83
8.8	Fouls	10.0
58	Possession %	41
1.86	xG	1.22
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Mito Hollyhock	Metric	Urawa
1.60	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
0.86	Expected goals (xG)	1.21 (better)
	Big chances
2.33	Shots on target	3.00 (better)
8.67	Total shots	11.67 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	6.67 (better)
53.7 (better)	Possession %	49.3
501 (better)	Passes	389
	Tackles
10.00	Fouls	9.33 (better)
3.33	Offsides	2.67 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.33	Yellow cards	1.33 (better)
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Mito Hollyhock wins: 0
Draws: 0
Urawa wins: 3
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Mito Hollyhock v Urawa0–12026-10-17
Mito Hollyhock v Urawa1–42026-05-09
Urawa v Mito Hollyhock2–02026-03-07

J1 League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Tokyo	14	10	3	1	+25	33	FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5
2	Kashiwa Reysol	14	10	1	3	+11	31	Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	14	9	3	2	+22	30	Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5
4	Machida Zelvia	14	8	5	1	+20	29	Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5
5	Vissel Kobe	14	8	3	3	+9	27	Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5
6	Kashima	14	7	2	5	+5	23	Kashima won 2 of the last 5
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	14	5	7	2	+6	22	Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5
8	Kawasaki Frontale	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5
9	Urawa	14	7	1	6	-6	22	Urawa won 3 of the last 5
10	Fagiano Okayama	14	5	2	7	-6	17	Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5
11	Cerezo Osaka	14	4	5	5	-9	17	Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5
12	Kyoto Sanga	14	4	4	6	-4	16	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5
13	Nagoya Grampus	14	4	2	8	-8	14	Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5
14	Tokyo Verdy	14	3	5	6	-10	14	Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5
15	Shimizu S-pulse	14	4	2	8	-13	14	Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5
16	V-varen Nagasaki	14	3	4	7	-5	13	V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5
17	JEF United Chiba	14	3	4	7	-8	13	JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5
18	Gamba Osaka	14	2	6	6	-8	12	Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5
19	Mito Hollyhock	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5
20	Avispa Fukuoka	14	2	2	10	-11	8	Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5