Mito Hollyhock v Sanfrecce Hiroshima

19th0–33rd

05:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Mito Hollyhock		Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3	Shots	17
0	Shots on target	7
0	Corners	7
6	Fouls	6
1	Yellow cards	0
1	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	3
265	Passes	883
23%	Possession %	77%
0.12	xG	1.58

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 53%
Over 3.5: 31%
Both score: 52%

Model pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 60%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 0.92 – 1.89

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Mito Hollyhock	17.4%	5.75	8.00 BetVictor	12.5%	+4.9
Match result	Draw	23.1%	4.33	5.20 Dafabet	19.2%	+3.9
Match result	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	59.5%	1.68	1.48 Dafabet	67.6%	-8.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	77.6%	1.29	1.21 Betano	82.6%	-5.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.4%	4.47	4.60 BetVictor	21.7%	+0.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	53.4%	1.87	1.65 Bet365	60.6%	-7.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	46.6%	2.14	2.30 Bet365	43.5%	+3.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	31.1%	3.22	2.62 Bet365	38.2%	-7.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.9%	1.45	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+2.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	51.7%	1.93	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-0.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	48.3%	2.07	1.91 William Hill	52.4%	-4.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima favoured against Mito Hollyhock

Our model makes Mito Hollyhock 17% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 23% and Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 60%. The goal projection is 0.92 for Mito Hollyhock against 1.89 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima — a commanding edge to Sanfrecce Hiroshima on expected output. A combined 2.81 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 0-1 11%; 0-2 11%; 1-2 10%; 0-3 7%

This season

Season records for Mito Hollyhock and Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Mito Hollyhock		Sanfrecce Hiroshima
14	Played	14
2-3-9	W-D-L	9-3-2
0.64	Pts / game	2.14
0.86	Goals for / game	2.29
1.86	Goals against / game	0.71
43%	Over 2.5	64%
50%	BTTS	29%
0%	Clean sheets	64%
50%	Failed to score	21%
1-2-4	Home record	5-1-0
1-1-5	Away record	4-2-2
L8	Streak	D1

2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. Mito Hollyhock · Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
7.2	Shots	17.5
1.3	Shots on target	5.8
3.0	Corners	7.0
1.17	Cards	0.83
9.2	Fouls	10.3
42	Possession %	64
0.46	xG	1.58
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.0	Shots	8.5
5.8	Shots on target	2.5
5.3	Corners	2.2
0.83	Cards	1.67
8.8	Fouls	12.0
58	Possession %	36
1.86	xG	0.87
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Mito Hollyhock	Metric	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.80	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
1.00	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
0.43	Expected goals (xG)	1.73 (better)
	Big chances
2.00	Shots on target	4.33 (better)
5.00	Total shots	17.33 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	7.67 (better)
44.3	Possession %	68.0 (better)
398	Passes	619 (better)
	Tackles
9.67	Fouls	9.33 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	1.33
	Throw-ins
1.00	Yellow cards	0.67 (better)
0.33 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Mito Hollyhock wins: 0
Draws: 0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Mito Hollyhock v Sanfrecce Hiroshima0–32026-10-31

J1 League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Tokyo	14	10	3	1	+25	33	FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5
2	Kashiwa Reysol	14	10	1	3	+11	31	Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	14	9	3	2	+22	30	Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5
4	Machida Zelvia	14	8	5	1	+20	29	Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5
5	Vissel Kobe	14	8	3	3	+9	27	Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5
6	Kashima	14	7	2	5	+5	23	Kashima won 2 of the last 5
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	14	5	7	2	+6	22	Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5
8	Kawasaki Frontale	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5
9	Urawa	14	7	1	6	-6	22	Urawa won 3 of the last 5
10	Fagiano Okayama	14	5	2	7	-6	17	Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5
11	Cerezo Osaka	14	4	5	5	-9	17	Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5
12	Kyoto Sanga	14	4	4	6	-4	16	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5
13	Nagoya Grampus	14	4	2	8	-8	14	Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5
14	Tokyo Verdy	14	3	5	6	-10	14	Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5
15	Shimizu S-pulse	14	4	2	8	-13	14	Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5
16	V-varen Nagasaki	14	3	4	7	-5	13	V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5
17	JEF United Chiba	14	3	4	7	-8	13	JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5
18	Gamba Osaka	14	2	6	6	-8	12	Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5
19	Mito Hollyhock	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5
20	Avispa Fukuoka	14	2	2	10	-11	8	Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5