Mijas Las Lagunas v 
Real Jaén
- Over 1.5
- 83%
- Over 2.5
- 61%
- Over 3.5
- 39%
- Both score
- 63%
- Model pick
- Real Jaén 38%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.57 – 1.58
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Mijas Las Lagunas | 37.5% | 2.67 | 4.75 Bet365 | 21.1% | +16.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 24.7% | 4.05 | 3.80 Bet365 | 26.3% | -1.6 |
| Match result | Real Jaén | 37.8% | 2.65 | 2.05 Bet365 | 48.8% | -11.0 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 82.8% | 1.21 | 1.30 BetVictor | 76.9% | +5.9 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 17.2% | 5.81 | 4.10 Betfair | 24.4% | -7.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 61.0% | 1.64 | 1.95 Bet365 | 51.3% | +9.7 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 39.0% | 2.56 | 1.87 Betfair | 53.5% | -14.5 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 38.7% | 2.58 | 3.40 Betfair | 29.4% | +9.3 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 61.3% | 1.63 | 1.40 Betfair | 71.4% | -10.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 63.5% | 1.58 | 1.91 Bet365 | 52.4% | +11.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 36.5% | 2.74 | 2.10 Bet365 | 47.6% | -11.1 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Mijas Las Lagunas v Real Jaén: too close to call
Our model makes Mijas Las Lagunas 38% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 25% and Real Jaén at 38%. The goal projection is 1.57 for Mijas Las Lagunas against 1.58 for Real Jaén — almost nothing to Real Jaén on expected output. A combined 3.15 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 1-2 8%
- 2-1 8%
- 2-2 7%
- 0-1 6%
This season
| Mijas Las Lagunas | Real Jaén | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Played | 1 |
| 0-0-1 | W-D-L | 1-0-0 |
| 0.00 | Pts / game | 3.00 |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game | 2.00 |
| 2.00 | Goals against / game | 1.00 |
| 100% | Over 2.5 | 100% |
| 100% | BTTS | 100% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 0-0-1 | Home record | 0-0-0 |
| 0-0-0 | Away record | 1-0-0 |
| L1 | Streak | W1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Mijas Las Lagunas · Real Jaén
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
No full-match statistics on record yet this season.
Conceded
No full-match statistics on record yet this season.
Form comparison
| Mijas Las Lagunas | Metric | Real Jaén |
|---|---|---|
| 3.00 (better) | Goals scored | 1.20 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded | 1.20 (better) |
| Expected goals (xG) | ||
| Big chances | ||
| Shots on target | ||
| Total shots | ||
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| Corners | ||
| Possession % | ||
| Passes | ||
| Tackles | ||
| Fouls | ||
| Offsides | ||
| Throw-ins | ||
| Yellow cards | ||
| Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Mijas Las Lagunas wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Real Jaén wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Mijas Las Lagunas v Real Jaén1–22026-11-10