Middlesbrough v 
Wolves
Match statistics
| Middlesbrough | Wolves | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 3 | Offsides | 2 |
| 495 | Passes | 446 |
| 52% | Possession % | 48% |
| 1.00 | xG | 0.60 |
- Over 1.5
- 82%
- Over 2.5
- 60%
- Over 3.5
- 38%
- Both score
- 62%
- Model pick
- Middlesbrough 46%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.75 – 1.35
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 1 of 5Middlesbrough -0.25
Why this price?
Back Middlesbrough -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.82 with Bet365 — Middlesbrough must win by more than 0.25 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 53% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 60%; we judge it at 57%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.76. The offered 1.82 implies only 55%, so the price is 3.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.06 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Middlesbrough 1.75, Wolves 1.35.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 38.1% | 2.63 | 2.55 Betfair | 39.2% | -1.1 |
| Match result | Middlesbrough | 46.3% | 2.16 | 2.30 Bet365 | 43.5% | +2.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 24.6% | 4.06 | 3.80 Betano | 26.3% | -1.7 |
| Match result | Wolves | 29.1% | 3.43 | 3.40 Betfair | 29.4% | -0.3 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 82.2% | 1.22 | 1.21 Betano | 82.6% | -0.4 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 17.8% | 5.63 | 5.00 Betfair | 20.0% | -2.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 60.0% | 1.67 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | +0.1 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 40.0% | 2.50 | 2.40 Betano | 41.7% | -1.6 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 37.6% | 2.66 | 2.63 Betfair | 38.0% | -0.4 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 62.4% | 1.60 | 1.53 Bet365 | 65.4% | -3.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 61.9% | 1.61 | 1.55 Betano | 64.5% | -2.6 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Middlesbrough favoured against Wolves
Our model makes Middlesbrough 46% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 25% and Wolves at 29%. The goal projection is 1.75 for Middlesbrough against 1.35 for Wolves — a clear edge to Middlesbrough on expected output. A combined 3.10 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-0 7%
- 1-2 7%
- 2-0 7%
This season
| Middlesbrough | Wolves | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 8-5-2 | W-D-L | 8-4-3 |
| 1.93 | Pts / game | 1.87 |
| 2.00 | Goals for / game | 1.73 |
| 1.27 | Goals against / game | 1.20 |
| 67% | Over 2.5 | 60% |
| 67% | BTTS | 67% |
| 27% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 13% | Failed to score | 7% |
| 5-2-0 | Home record | 4-2-1 |
| 3-3-2 | Away record | 4-2-2 |
| D1 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Middlesbrough · Wolves
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 20.4 | Shots | 17.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.9 | Shots on target | 4.6 |
| 7.0 | Corners | 7.1 |
| 1.11 | Cards | 2.44 |
| 8.4 | Fouls | 12.8 |
| 62 | Possession % | 54 |
| 2.14 | xG | 1.63 |
| 9 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 10.6 | Shots | 9.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.7 | Shots on target | 3.8 |
| 3.8 | Corners | 3.3 |
| 1.59 | Cards | 2.33 |
| 10.9 | Fouls | 10.7 |
| 38 | Possession % | 46 |
| 0.94 | xG | 0.96 |
| 9 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Middlesbrough | Metric | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 (better) | Goals scored | 1.20 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded | 1.40 (better) |
| 2.14 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.73 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.40 (better) | Shots on target | 3.60 |
| 17.20 (better) | Total shots | 13.20 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.80 | Corners | 6.00 (better) |
| 57.8 (better) | Possession % | 50.0 |
| 504 (better) | Passes | 408 |
| Tackles | ||
| 9.20 (better) | Fouls | 13.40 |
| 2.20 | Offsides | 1.60 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.40 | Yellow cards | 1.20 (better) |
| Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Middlesbrough wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Wolves wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 1.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Middlesbrough v Wolves1–02026-10-10
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Birmingham won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +11 | 29 | Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 29 | Stoke City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +14 | 28 | Southampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | Wolves won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | West Brom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 26 | Swansea won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +6 | 24 | QPR won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +14 | 23 | West Ham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | +8 | 21 | Norwich won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | Blackburn won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18 | Cardiff won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 18 | Wrexham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Millwall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 18 | Bristol City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 17 | Bolton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 | Charlton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 15 | Watford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 15 | Lincoln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -9 | 10 | Burnley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -16 | 10 | Derby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 8 | Preston won 1 of the last 5 |