Metz v PAU

7th1–35th

19:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Metz		PAU
18	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	5
8	Corners	4
12	Fouls	9
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	2
728	Passes	334
69%	Possession %	31%
1.99	xG	2.11

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 59%
Over 3.5: 36%
Both score: 62%

Model pick: PAU 41%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.44 – 1.60

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Metz -0.75

2.18Marathonbet · fair 1.98 · qualifies at 2.04+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Metz -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 2.18 with Marathonbet — Metz must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 27% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 66%; we judge it at 50%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.98. The offered 2.18 implies only 46%, so the price is 9.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Metz 1.44, PAU 1.60.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Metz	34.0%	2.94	2.15 Betano	46.5%	-12.5
Match result	Draw	25.1%	3.98	3.80 Dafabet	26.3%	-1.2
Match result	PAU	40.9%	2.45	3.65 Betano	27.4%	+13.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.3%	1.23	1.29 Betfair	77.5%	+3.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	18.7%	5.34	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	-4.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	58.7%	1.70	1.90 Bet365	52.6%	+6.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	41.3%	2.42	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	-6.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	36.3%	2.76	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	+5.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	63.7%	1.57	1.38 Betano	72.5%	-8.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.5%	1.63	1.73 Betfair	57.8%	+3.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.5%	2.60	2.25 Betano	44.4%	-6.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

PAU favoured against Metz

Our model makes Metz 34% to win this Ligue 2 fixture, with the draw at 25% and PAU at 41%. The goal projection is 1.44 for Metz against 1.60 for PAU — a slight edge to PAU on expected output. A combined 3.05 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 0-1 7%; 2-2 6%

This season

Season records for Metz and PAU
Metz		PAU
12	Played	12
4-5-3	W-D-L	6-2-4
1.42	Pts / game	1.67
1.67	Goals for / game	1.33
1.58	Goals against / game	1.08
58%	Over 2.5	42%
83%	BTTS	50%
8%	Clean sheets	17%
17%	Failed to score	33%
3-2-1	Home record	3-1-3
1-3-2	Away record	3-1-1
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Metz · PAU

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.2	Shots	12.0
5.2	Shots on target	4.8
4.8	Corners	3.0
2.00	Cards	3.20
15.6	Fouls	16.0
53	Possession %	48
1.50	xG	1.33
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.0	Shots	12.6
5.2	Shots on target	3.8
4.6	Corners	4.4
1.20	Cards	3.00
14.0	Fouls	19.0
47	Possession %	52
1.92	xG	1.66
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Metz	Metric	PAU
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	2.00
2.00	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.72	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
4.40	Shots on target	5.75 (better)
13.00	Total shots	14.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.00 (better)	Corners	3.50
55.6 (better)	Possession %	43.0
483 (better)	Passes	382
	Tackles
13.40 (better)	Fouls	17.75
2.00	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	2.50
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Metz wins: 0
Draws: 0
PAU wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Metz v PAU1–32026-10-30

Ligue 2 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Saint Etienne	12	9	1	2	+14	28	Saint Etienne won 4 of the last 5
2	Nancy	12	8	1	3	+8	25	Nancy won 5 of the last 5
3	Montpellier	12	7	3	2	+9	24	Montpellier won 4 of the last 5
4	Reims	12	5	6	1	+9	21	Reims won 2 of the last 5
5	PAU	12	6	2	4	+3	20	PAU won 4 of the last 5
6	Dijon	12	5	3	4	+2	18	Dijon won 3 of the last 5
7	Metz	12	4	5	3	+1	17	Metz won 2 of the last 5
8	RED Star FC 93	12	5	2	5	-3	17	RED Star FC 93 won 1 of the last 5
9	Annecy	12	5	1	6	-4	16	Annecy won 2 of the last 5
10	Dunkerque	12	4	3	5	0	15	Dunkerque won 2 of the last 5
11	Guingamp	12	4	2	6	-2	14	Guingamp won 2 of the last 5
12	Boulogne	12	2	7	3	+2	13	Boulogne won 2 of the last 5
13	Rodez	12	4	1	7	-6	13	Rodez won 2 of the last 5
14	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Nantes won 1 of the last 5
15	Clermont Foot	12	1	8	3	-4	11	Clermont Foot won 1 of the last 5
16	Sochaux	12	2	5	5	-7	11	Sochaux won 0 of the last 5
17	Grenoble	12	3	2	7	-9	11	Grenoble won 1 of the last 5
18	Laval	12	2	3	7	-9	9	Laval won 1 of the last 5