Predicted Edge

Marine v Warrington Town

Marine won 3 of the last 42–0Warrington Town won 2 of the last 4
Over 1.5
89%
Over 2.5
71%
Over 3.5
51%
Both score
71%
Model pick
Warrington Town 46%
Likely score
1-1 9%
Expected goals
1.66 – 2.04

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultMarine31.3%3.191.80 Betano55.6%-24.3
Match resultDraw22.3%4.493.70 BetVictor27.0%-4.8
Match resultWarrington Town46.4%2.154.40 BetVictor22.7%+23.7
Total goalsOver 1.588.9%1.131.26 Betano79.4%+9.5
Total goalsUnder 1.511.1%8.983.60 BetVictor27.8%-16.6
Total goalsOver 2.571.4%1.401.85 Bet36554.1%+17.4
Total goalsUnder 2.528.6%3.501.95 Bet36551.3%-22.7
Total goalsOver 3.550.6%1.983.10 BetVictor32.3%+18.3
Total goalsUnder 3.549.4%2.021.33 BetVictor75.2%-25.7
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes70.9%1.411.75 William Hill57.1%+13.8
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No29.1%3.442.00 William Hill50.0%-20.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Warrington Town favoured against Marine

Our model makes Marine 31% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 22% and Warrington Town at 46%. The goal projection is 1.66 for Marine against 2.04 for Warrington Town — a clear edge to Warrington Town on expected output. A combined 3.70 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 71%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 9%
1-2 9%
2-2 7%
2-1 7%
1-3 6%

This season

Season records for Marine and Warrington Town
Marine Warrington Town
4Played4
3-0-1W-D-L2-1-1
2.25Pts / game1.75
1.75Goals for / game2.25
2.25Goals against / game1.00
50%Over 2.575%
25%BTTS25%
50%Clean sheets50%
25%Failed to score25%
2-0-0Home record2-0-0
1-0-1Away record0-1-1
L1StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Marine · Warrington Town

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
6.5Shots—
1.5Shots on target—
2.5Corners—
3.00Cards—
10.0Fouls—
42Possession %—
—xG—
2 matchessample—

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
21.5Shots—
9.5Shots on target—
7.0Corners—
1.00Cards—
8.0Fouls—
58Possession %—
—xG—
2 matchessample—

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
MarineMetricWarrington Town
1.60Goals scored2.40 (better)
1.40 (better)Goals conceded1.80
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target
Total shots
Touches in opp. box
Corners
Possession %
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
Yellow cards
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Marine wins
1
Draws
0
Warrington Town wins
0
Goals / game
2.00
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
0%