Mantova v Hellas Verona

4th0–05th

16:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Mantova		Hellas Verona
15	Shots	13
1	Shots on target	3
3	Corners	3
12	Fouls	17
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
502	Passes	478
40%	Possession %	60%
1.37	xG	1.27

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 52%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 56%

Model pick: Mantova 44%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.56 – 1.22

Advised bets

Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Hellas Verona +0.25

2.30Bet365 · fair 2.06 · qualifies at 2.12+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Hellas Verona +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.30 with Bet365 — Hellas Verona starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 49% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 48%; we judge it at 49%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.06. The offered 2.30 implies only 43%, so the price is 11.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Mantova 1.56, Hellas Verona 1.22.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Draw	26.2%	3.82	3.45 Dafabet	29.0%	-2.8
Match result	Hellas Verona	29.3%	3.41	2.80 Bet365	35.7%	-6.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	77.1%	1.30	1.28 Betano	78.1%	-1.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.9%	4.36	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	-1.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	52.5%	1.91	1.85 Betano	54.1%	-1.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	47.5%	2.10	2.02 Betano	49.5%	-2.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	30.3%	3.30	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-2.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	69.7%	1.43	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	-1.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	56.2%	1.78	1.65 William Hill	60.6%	-4.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	43.8%	2.28	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	-0.7
Match result	Mantova	44.5%	2.25	2.55 Dafabet	39.2%	+5.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Mantova favoured against Hellas Verona

Our model makes Mantova 44% to win this Serie B fixture, with the draw at 26% and Hellas Verona at 29%. The goal projection is 1.56 for Mantova against 1.22 for Hellas Verona — a clear edge to Mantova on expected output. A combined 2.78 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 9%; 2-0 8%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Mantova and Hellas Verona
Mantova		Hellas Verona
11	Played	11
5-4-2	W-D-L	4-4-3
1.73	Pts / game	1.45
1.36	Goals for / game	1.73
1.00	Goals against / game	1.18
36%	Over 2.5	64%
55%	BTTS	64%
27%	Clean sheets	36%
27%	Failed to score	9%
2-2-2	Home record	3-2-1
3-2-0	Away record	1-2-2
D2	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Mantova · Hellas Verona

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.3	Shots	15.0
4.4	Shots on target	4.9
4.3	Corners	5.7
2.43	Cards	1.71
15.4	Fouls	14.0
54	Possession %	49
1.62	xG	1.43
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.0	Shots	14.4
4.0	Shots on target	3.6
3.3	Corners	4.7
2.71	Cards	1.43
13.4	Fouls	8.4
46	Possession %	51
1.39	xG	1.40
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Mantova	Metric	Hellas Verona
1.20	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	1.40
1.95 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.42
	Big chances
5.40 (better)	Shots on target	5.00
14.60	Total shots	16.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.00	Corners	7.25 (better)
57.8 (better)	Possession %	46.3
506 (better)	Passes	426
	Tackles
14.60	Fouls	13.25 (better)
1.40	Offsides	1.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.80	Yellow cards	1.25 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Mantova wins: 0
Draws: 1
Hellas Verona wins: 0
Goals / game: 0.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Mantova v Hellas Verona0–02026-11-07

Serie B table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Palermo	11	8	3	0	+12	27	Palermo won 3 of the last 5
2	Modena	11	7	2	2	+10	23	Modena won 3 of the last 5
3	Ascoli	11	5	5	1	+10	20	Ascoli won 2 of the last 5
4	Mantova	11	5	4	2	+4	19	Mantova won 1 of the last 5
5	Hellas Verona	11	4	4	3	+6	16	Hellas Verona won 2 of the last 5
6	Avellino	11	4	4	3	+5	16	Avellino won 1 of the last 5
7	Benevento	11	4	4	3	+4	16	Benevento won 1 of the last 5
8	Pisa	11	4	4	3	+3	16	Pisa won 1 of the last 5
9	Juve Stabia	11	4	4	3	+1	16	Juve Stabia won 3 of the last 5
10	Cremonese	11	4	3	4	+2	15	Cremonese won 3 of the last 5
11	Sudtirol	11	3	6	2	+1	15	Sudtirol won 0 of the last 5
12	Padova	11	4	3	4	-1	15	Padova won 2 of the last 5
13	Cesena	11	3	6	2	-2	15	Cesena won 2 of the last 5
14	Sampdoria	11	3	2	6	-7	11	Sampdoria won 2 of the last 5
15	Arezzo	11	3	2	6	-11	11	Arezzo won 1 of the last 5
16	Virtus Entella	11	2	4	5	-3	10	Virtus Entella won 1 of the last 5
17	Carrarese	11	3	1	7	-5	10	Carrarese won 2 of the last 5
18	Empoli	11	2	3	6	-7	9	Empoli won 0 of the last 5
19	Vicenza Virtus	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Vicenza Virtus won 1 of the last 5
20	Catanzaro	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Catanzaro won 0 of the last 5