Mantova v Cremonese

4th0–210th

19:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Mantova		Cremonese
20	Shots	6
9	Shots on target	5
5	Corners	2
13	Fouls	14
3	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	1
4	Offsides	3
654	Passes	351
66%	Possession %	34%
1.97	xG	1.32

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 53%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Mantova 53%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.74 – 1.04

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Mantova

2.49Dafabet · fair 2.27 · qualifies at 2.33+ · 1.66u

Why this price?

Back Mantova to win at 2.49 with Dafabet.

Our model puts the chance at 53% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 38%; we judge it at 44%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.27. The offered 2.49 implies only 40%, so the price is 9.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.66 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Mantova 1.74, Cremonese 1.04.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Mantova	53.1%	1.88	2.49 Dafabet	40.2%	+13.0
Match result	Draw	24.8%	4.03	3.40 Betfair	29.4%	-4.6
Match result	Cremonese	22.1%	4.53	3.30 Bet365	30.3%	-8.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	77.1%	1.30	1.33 Betano	75.2%	+1.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.9%	4.37	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-6.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	52.6%	1.90	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	+2.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	47.4%	2.11	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-6.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	30.4%	3.29	3.50 BetVictor	28.6%	+1.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	69.6%	1.44	1.33 Betano	75.2%	-5.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.9%	1.85	1.80 Betfair	55.6%	-1.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.1%	2.17	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	+0.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Mantova favoured against Cremonese

Our model makes Mantova 53% to win this Serie B fixture, with the draw at 25% and Cremonese at 22%. The goal projection is 1.74 for Mantova against 1.04 for Cremonese — a substantial edge to Mantova on expected output. A combined 2.78 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 9%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Mantova and Cremonese
Mantova		Cremonese
11	Played	11
5-4-2	W-D-L	4-3-4
1.73	Pts / game	1.36
1.36	Goals for / game	1.27
1.00	Goals against / game	1.09
36%	Over 2.5	45%
55%	BTTS	36%
27%	Clean sheets	36%
27%	Failed to score	45%
2-2-2	Home record	2-1-2
3-2-0	Away record	2-2-2
D2	Streak	W3

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Mantova · Cremonese

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.3	Shots	11.2
4.4	Shots on target	4.2
4.3	Corners	3.2
2.43	Cards	1.83
15.4	Fouls	10.0
54	Possession %	43
1.62	xG	1.46
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.0	Shots	14.7
4.0	Shots on target	4.5
3.3	Corners	5.0
2.71	Cards	2.67
13.4	Fouls	10.5
46	Possession %	57
1.39	xG	1.40
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Mantova	Metric	Cremonese
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
1.20	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.72 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.55
	Big chances
4.80 (better)	Shots on target	3.33
12.80 (better)	Total shots	8.00
	Touches in opp. box
4.60 (better)	Corners	2.67
50.4 (better)	Possession %	45.0
443 (better)	Passes	388
	Tackles
12.60	Fouls	10.67 (better)
1.40 (better)	Offsides	1.67
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	2.33
	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Mantova wins: 0
Draws: 0
Cremonese wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Mantova v Cremonese0–22026-10-27

Serie B table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Palermo	11	8	3	0	+12	27	Palermo won 3 of the last 5
2	Modena	11	7	2	2	+10	23	Modena won 3 of the last 5
3	Ascoli	11	5	5	1	+10	20	Ascoli won 2 of the last 5
4	Mantova	11	5	4	2	+4	19	Mantova won 1 of the last 5
5	Hellas Verona	11	4	4	3	+6	16	Hellas Verona won 2 of the last 5
6	Avellino	11	4	4	3	+5	16	Avellino won 1 of the last 5
7	Benevento	11	4	4	3	+4	16	Benevento won 1 of the last 5
8	Pisa	11	4	4	3	+3	16	Pisa won 1 of the last 5
9	Juve Stabia	11	4	4	3	+1	16	Juve Stabia won 3 of the last 5
10	Cremonese	11	4	3	4	+2	15	Cremonese won 3 of the last 5
11	Sudtirol	11	3	6	2	+1	15	Sudtirol won 0 of the last 5
12	Padova	11	4	3	4	-1	15	Padova won 2 of the last 5
13	Cesena	11	3	6	2	-2	15	Cesena won 2 of the last 5
14	Sampdoria	11	3	2	6	-7	11	Sampdoria won 2 of the last 5
15	Arezzo	11	3	2	6	-11	11	Arezzo won 1 of the last 5
16	Virtus Entella	11	2	4	5	-3	10	Virtus Entella won 1 of the last 5
17	Carrarese	11	3	1	7	-5	10	Carrarese won 2 of the last 5
18	Empoli	11	2	3	6	-7	9	Empoli won 0 of the last 5
19	Vicenza Virtus	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Vicenza Virtus won 1 of the last 5
20	Catanzaro	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Catanzaro won 0 of the last 5