Predicted Edge

Manacor v Villarreal

Manacor won 0 of the last 10–5Villarreal won 2 of the last 58th
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
39%
Both score
61%
Model pick
Villarreal 54%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.95

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultManacor23.0%4.3571.00 Betfair1.4%+21.6
Match resultDraw23.0%4.3521.00 Bet3654.8%+18.2
Match resultVillarreal54.0%1.851.05 William Hill95.2%-41.2
Total goalsOver 1.582.8%1.211.05 Bet36595.2%-12.4
Total goalsUnder 1.517.2%5.8111.00 Bet3659.1%+8.1
Total goalsOver 2.561.1%1.641.23 Betano81.3%-20.2
Total goalsUnder 2.538.9%2.575.00 Betfair20.0%+18.9
Total goalsOver 3.538.8%2.581.67 Betfair59.9%-21.1
Total goalsUnder 3.561.2%1.632.38 Betfair42.0%+19.2
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes60.6%1.653.00 Bet36533.3%+27.3
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No39.4%2.541.47 Betfair68.0%-28.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Villarreal favoured against Manacor

Our model makes Manacor 23% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 23% and Villarreal at 54%. The goal projection is 1.21 for Manacor against 1.95 for Villarreal — a substantial edge to Villarreal on expected output. A combined 3.16 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 11%
1-2 10%
0-2 8%
0-1 8%
1-3 6%

This season

Season records for Manacor and Villarreal
Manacor Villarreal
1Played12
0-0-1W-D-L4-3-5
0.00Pts / game1.25
0.00Goals for / game1.42
5.00Goals against / game1.25
100%Over 2.558%
0%BTTS58%
0%Clean sheets17%
100%Failed to score33%
0-0-1Home record2-1-3
0-0-0Away record2-2-2
L1StreakW1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Manacor · Villarreal

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots17.6
—Shots on target5.9
—Corners7.5
—Cards2.08
—Fouls10.1
—Possession %62
—xG2.15
—sample8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots9.8
—Shots on target3.5
—Corners4.5
—Cards3.27
—Fouls11.8
—Possession %38
—xG1.06
—sample8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
ManacorMetricVillarreal
2.80 (better)Goals scored1.80
1.20Goals conceded0.80 (better)
Expected goals (xG)2.36
Big chances
Shots on target5.80
Total shots17.60
Touches in opp. box
Corners6.40
Possession %57.8
Passes542
Tackles
Fouls10.40
Offsides2.80
Throw-ins
Yellow cards1.60
Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Manacor wins
0
Draws
0
Villarreal wins
1
Goals / game
5.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
0%