Malmo FF v Hammarby FF

7th1–21st

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Malmo FF		Hammarby FF
9	Shots	21
5	Shots on target	6
1	Corners	5
12	Fouls	15
2	Yellow cards	2
1	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
500	Passes	450
52%	Possession %	48%
0.36	xG	1.84

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: Hammarby FF 46%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.11 – 1.51

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Malmo FF	27.3%	3.66	4.60 Dafabet	21.7%	+5.6
Match result	Draw	26.9%	3.72	4.20 Betfair	23.8%	+3.1
Match result	Hammarby FF	45.8%	2.18	1.76 Dafabet	56.8%	-11.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.3%	1.35	1.17 Bet365	85.5%	-11.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.7%	3.89	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	+7.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	48.7%	2.05	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	-16.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.3%	1.95	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	+10.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	26.9%	3.72	2.38 Bet365	42.0%	-15.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.1%	1.37	1.62 Betano	61.7%	+11.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	52.9%	1.89	1.60 Betfair	62.5%	-9.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	47.1%	2.12	2.42 Betano	41.3%	+5.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Hammarby FF favoured against Malmo FF

Our model makes Malmo FF 27% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 27% and Hammarby FF at 46%. The goal projection is 1.11 for Malmo FF against 1.51 for Hammarby FF — a clear edge to Hammarby FF on expected output. A combined 2.62 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 0-2 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Malmo FF and Hammarby FF
Malmo FF		Hammarby FF
28	Played	28
12-5-11	W-D-L	18-4-6
1.46	Pts / game	2.07
1.50	Goals for / game	2.14
1.29	Goals against / game	0.82
57%	Over 2.5	50%
50%	BTTS	46%
39%	Clean sheets	43%
21%	Failed to score	11%
5-1-8	Home record	11-1-2
7-4-3	Away record	7-3-4
D1	Streak	W5

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Malmo FF · Hammarby FF

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.3	Shots	18.0
4.7	Shots on target	6.0
5.0	Corners	7.0
2.50	Cards	1.86
13.7	Fouls	11.9
57	Possession %	62
1.08	xG	1.47
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.2	Shots	8.6
4.2	Shots on target	2.9
5.7	Corners	3.1
2.33	Cards	2.29
15.3	Fouls	12.7
43	Possession %	38
1.40	xG	0.99
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Malmo FF	Metric	Hammarby FF
0.80	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
0.60	Goals conceded	0.40 (better)
1.59	Expected goals (xG)	1.69 (better)
	Big chances
4.50	Shots on target	7.75 (better)
18.25	Total shots	18.50 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
7.00	Corners	7.00
58.0	Possession %	64.0 (better)
542	Passes	652 (better)
	Tackles
13.75	Fouls	12.75 (better)
2.25	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.50	Yellow cards	1.50
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Malmo FF wins: 0
Draws: 0
Hammarby FF wins: 3
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Malmo FF v Hammarby FF1–22026-11-01
Hammarby FF v Malmo FF4–12026-05-17
Malmo FF v Hammarby FF1–32025-10-27

Allsvenskan table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hammarby FF	28	18	4	6	+37	58	Hammarby FF won 5 of the last 5
2	Sirius	27	18	4	5	+24	58	Sirius won 2 of the last 5
3	Djurgardens IF	28	16	4	8	+29	52	Djurgardens IF won 2 of the last 5
4	BK Hacken	27	13	10	4	+18	49	BK Hacken won 4 of the last 5
5	IF Elfsborg	28	12	10	6	+11	46	IF Elfsborg won 1 of the last 5
6	Vasteras SK FK	28	13	6	9	+2	45	Vasteras SK FK won 3 of the last 5
7	Malmo FF	28	12	5	11	+6	41	Malmo FF won 1 of the last 5
8	Gais	28	11	7	10	+8	40	Gais won 3 of the last 5
9	IFK Goteborg	28	10	9	9	-10	39	IFK Goteborg won 0 of the last 5
10	AIK Stockholm	27	10	8	9	-4	38	AIK Stockholm won 1 of the last 5
11	IF Brommapojkarna	28	9	8	11	-5	35	IF Brommapojkarna won 1 of the last 5
12	Mjallby AIF	28	6	10	12	-13	28	Mjallby AIF won 1 of the last 5
13	Kalmar FF	27	6	5	16	-19	23	Kalmar FF won 1 of the last 5
14	Degerfors IF	28	5	5	18	-25	20	Degerfors IF won 0 of the last 5
15	Orgryte IS	28	4	8	16	-27	20	Orgryte IS won 1 of the last 5
16	Halmstad	28	5	5	18	-32	20	Halmstad won 2 of the last 5