Malmo FF v BK Hacken

7th0–14th

14:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Malmo FF		BK Hacken
19	Shots	17
6	Shots on target	5
13	Corners	5
17	Fouls	8
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	2
546	Passes	357
61%	Possession %	39%
1.52	xG	1.12

Over 1.5: 83%
Over 2.5: 60%
Over 3.5: 38%
Both score: 63%

Model pick: Malmo FF 40%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.61 – 1.51

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Malmo FF -0.5

2.35Bet365 · fair 2.13 · qualifies at 2.19+ · 1.95u

Why this price?

Back Malmo FF -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.35 with Bet365 — Malmo FF must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 40% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 52%; we judge it at 47%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.13. The offered 2.35 implies only 43%, so the price is 10.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.95 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Malmo FF 1.61, BK Hacken 1.51.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 3.5	38.1%	2.63	2.42 Betano	41.3%	-3.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	61.9%	1.61	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	+0.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	63.1%	1.59	1.50 William Hill	66.7%	-3.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	36.9%	2.71	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-1.1
Match result	Malmo FF	39.7%	2.52	2.62 William Hill	38.2%	+1.5
Match result	Draw	25.0%	4.00	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-1.3
Match result	BK Hacken	35.3%	2.83	2.65 Betano	37.7%	-2.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.5%	1.21	1.19 Betano	84.0%	-1.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.5%	5.72	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	-0.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	60.4%	1.66	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-2.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	39.6%	2.53	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+0.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Malmo FF v BK Hacken: too close to call

Our model makes Malmo FF 40% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 25% and BK Hacken at 35%. The goal projection is 1.61 for Malmo FF against 1.51 for BK Hacken — a slight edge to Malmo FF on expected output. A combined 3.13 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-0 6%

This season

Season records for Malmo FF and BK Hacken
Malmo FF		BK Hacken
28	Played	28
12-5-11	W-D-L	13-10-5
1.46	Pts / game	1.75
1.50	Goals for / game	1.79
1.29	Goals against / game	1.18
57%	Over 2.5	54%
50%	BTTS	50%
39%	Clean sheets	46%
21%	Failed to score	14%
5-1-8	Home record	7-5-2
7-4-3	Away record	6-5-3
D1	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Malmo FF · BK Hacken

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.3	Shots	19.6
4.7	Shots on target	7.3
5.0	Corners	6.1
2.50	Cards	1.14
13.7	Fouls	11.3
57	Possession %	54
1.08	xG	1.81
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.2	Shots	13.4
4.2	Shots on target	4.3
5.7	Corners	5.9
2.33	Cards	2.00
15.3	Fouls	12.0
43	Possession %	46
1.40	xG	1.21
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Malmo FF	Metric	BK Hacken
1.60	Goals scored	1.60
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	0.80
2.12	Expected goals (xG)	2.14 (better)
	Big chances
7.00 (better)	Shots on target	6.25
20.25 (better)	Total shots	14.75
	Touches in opp. box
6.25 (better)	Corners	5.00
56.8 (better)	Possession %	51.0
537 (better)	Passes	511
	Tackles
12.75	Fouls	11.50 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	1.50
	Throw-ins
1.50	Yellow cards	0.75 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Malmo FF wins: 0
Draws: 1
BK Hacken wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 67%

Malmo FF v BK Hacken0–12026-10-18
BK Hacken v Malmo FF3–22026-05-10
BK Hacken v Malmo FF1–12025-11-01

Allsvenskan table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hammarby FF	28	18	4	6	+37	58	Hammarby FF won 5 of the last 5
2	Sirius	28	18	4	6	+23	58	Sirius won 1 of the last 5
3	Djurgardens IF	28	16	4	8	+29	52	Djurgardens IF won 2 of the last 5
4	BK Hacken	28	13	10	5	+17	49	BK Hacken won 3 of the last 5
5	IF Elfsborg	28	12	10	6	+11	46	IF Elfsborg won 1 of the last 5
6	Vasteras SK FK	28	13	6	9	+2	45	Vasteras SK FK won 3 of the last 5
7	Malmo FF	28	12	5	11	+6	41	Malmo FF won 1 of the last 5
8	AIK Stockholm	28	11	8	9	-3	41	AIK Stockholm won 2 of the last 5
9	Gais	28	11	7	10	+8	40	Gais won 3 of the last 5
10	IFK Goteborg	28	10	9	9	-10	39	IFK Goteborg won 0 of the last 5
11	IF Brommapojkarna	28	9	8	11	-5	35	IF Brommapojkarna won 1 of the last 5
12	Mjallby AIF	28	6	10	12	-13	28	Mjallby AIF won 1 of the last 5
13	Kalmar FF	28	7	5	16	-18	26	Kalmar FF won 2 of the last 5
14	Degerfors IF	28	5	5	18	-25	20	Degerfors IF won 0 of the last 5
15	Orgryte IS	28	4	8	16	-27	20	Orgryte IS won 1 of the last 5
16	Halmstad	28	5	5	18	-32	20	Halmstad won 2 of the last 5