Mallorca v Cadiz

6th2–120th

20:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Mallorca		Cadiz
23	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	3
10	Corners	2
17	Fouls	15
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
490	Passes	287
64%	Possession %	36%
3.37	xG	0.56

Over 1.5: 73%
Over 2.5: 47%
Over 3.5: 25%
Both score: 47%

Model pick: Mallorca 58%
Likely score: 1-0 13%
Expected goals: 1.71 – 0.83

Advised bets

Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Mallorca -0.75

1.55Bet365 · fair 1.40 · qualifies at 1.44+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Mallorca -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.55 with Bet365 — Mallorca must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 52% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 85%; we judge it at 72%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.40. The offered 1.55 implies only 65%, so the price is 10.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Mallorca 1.71, Cadiz 0.83.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Mallorca	57.9%	1.73	1.50 Betano	66.7%	-8.8
Match result	Draw	24.8%	4.03	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	+2.6
Match result	Cadiz	17.3%	5.77	7.00 Betfair	14.3%	+3.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	72.6%	1.38	1.28 Betano	78.1%	-5.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	27.4%	3.65	4.00 Betfair	25.0%	+2.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	46.6%	2.15	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-4.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	53.4%	1.87	2.08 Bet365	48.1%	+5.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	25.1%	3.99	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-4.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	74.9%	1.33	1.40 Betano	71.4%	+3.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	46.7%	2.14	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	-1.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	53.3%	1.88	1.85 William Hill	54.1%	-0.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Mallorca favoured against Cadiz

Our model makes Mallorca 58% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 25% and Cadiz at 17%. The goal projection is 1.71 for Mallorca against 0.83 for Cadiz — a substantial edge to Mallorca on expected output. A combined 2.54 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 13%; 1-1 12%; 2-0 12%; 2-1 10%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Mallorca and Cadiz
Mallorca		Cadiz
12	Played	13
6-4-2	W-D-L	2-4-7
1.83	Pts / game	0.77
1.25	Goals for / game	1.23
0.58	Goals against / game	1.38
25%	Over 2.5	54%
33%	BTTS	62%
50%	Clean sheets	15%
33%	Failed to score	31%
5-0-1	Home record	2-2-4
1-4-1	Away record	0-2-3
W1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Mallorca · Cadiz

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.7	Shots	12.4
4.2	Shots on target	3.7
6.8	Corners	4.7
3.67	Cards	2.71
16.5	Fouls	12.1
54	Possession %	45
1.81	xG	1.05
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.3	Shots	14.9
3.8	Shots on target	3.1
3.8	Corners	5.6
2.50	Cards	2.29
14.0	Fouls	13.3
46	Possession %	55
1.51	xG	1.63
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Mallorca	Metric	Cadiz
1.00	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.00
1.41 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.35
	Big chances
4.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.80
12.80 (better)	Total shots	12.40
	Touches in opp. box
6.20 (better)	Corners	4.80
51.6 (better)	Possession %	46.4
432 (better)	Passes	401
	Tackles
16.40	Fouls	12.20 (better)
2.25	Offsides	1.20 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.80	Yellow cards	2.80 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Mallorca wins: 1
Draws: 0
Cadiz wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Mallorca v Cadiz2–12026-11-02

Segunda División table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	+14	29	Almeria won 3 of the last 5
2	Castellón	12	8	3	1	+18	27	Castellón won 2 of the last 5
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Burgos won 3 of the last 5
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	+7	23	Eibar won 1 of the last 5
5	Granada CF	12	7	2	3	+6	23	Granada CF won 5 of the last 5
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	+8	22	Mallorca won 2 of the last 5
7	Sporting Gijon	13	7	1	5	-1	22	Sporting Gijon won 3 of the last 5
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	+10	21	Girona won 2 of the last 5
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	+3	21	Oviedo won 3 of the last 5
10	Las Palmas	13	6	2	5	-2	20	Las Palmas won 3 of the last 5
11	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	0	19	Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
12	Valladolid	13	5	3	5	+2	18	Valladolid won 3 of the last 5
13	Sabadell	13	4	6	3	+1	18	Sabadell won 1 of the last 5
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	-2	15	Tenerife won 0 of the last 5
15	Eldense	13	4	2	7	-6	14	Eldense won 2 of the last 5
16	Celta de Vigo II	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5
17	Real Sociedad II	13	3	3	7	-7	12	Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5
18	Leganes	13	3	3	7	-12	12	Leganes won 0 of the last 5
19	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	-5	11	FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5
20	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-2	10	Cadiz won 1 of the last 5
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	-11	10	Albacete won 3 of the last 5
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	-20	5	AD Ceuta FC won 0 of the last 5