Malaga v 
Espanyol
Match statistics
| Malaga | Espanyol | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 484 | Passes | 353 |
| 58% | Possession % | 42% |
| 0.77 | xG | 1.14 |
- Over 1.5
- 78%
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- Over 3.5
- 32%
- Both score
- 56%
- Model pick
- Malaga 49%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.68 – 1.16
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Over 3.5
Why this price?
Back over 3.5 goals at 3.75 with Bet365 — 4 goals or more in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 32% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 26%; we judge it at 29%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.51. The offered 3.75 implies only 27%, so the price is 7.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.63 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Malaga 1.68, Espanyol 1.16.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Lost
Free pick
Edge strength 2 of 5Malaga
Why this price?
Back Malaga to win at 2.42 with Betano.
Our model puts the chance at 49% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 39%; we judge it at 43%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.32. The offered 2.42 implies only 41%, so the price is 4.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.73 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Malaga 1.68, Espanyol 1.16.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Malaga | 48.9% | 2.04 | 2.90 Bet365 | 34.5% | +14.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 25.5% | 3.92 | 3.40 BetVictor | 29.4% | -3.9 |
| Match result | Espanyol | 25.6% | 3.91 | 3.05 Betano | 32.8% | -7.2 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 78.2% | 1.28 | 1.34 Betano | 74.6% | +3.5 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 21.8% | 4.58 | 3.50 Bet365 | 28.6% | -6.7 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 53.9% | 1.86 | 2.10 Bet365 | 47.6% | +6.2 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 46.1% | 2.17 | 1.82 Betano | 54.9% | -8.8 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 31.6% | 3.17 | 4.00 Bet365 | 25.0% | +6.6 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 68.4% | 1.46 | 1.33 Bet365 | 75.2% | -6.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 56.4% | 1.77 | 1.80 Bet365 | 55.6% | +0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 43.6% | 2.29 | 2.05 Betfair | 48.8% | -5.2 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Malaga favoured against Espanyol
Our model makes Malaga 49% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 26% and Espanyol at 26%. The goal projection is 1.68 for Malaga against 1.16 for Espanyol — a substantial edge to Malaga on expected output. A combined 2.84 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 2-1 10%
- 1-0 9%
- 2-0 8%
- 1-2 7%
This season
| Malaga | Espanyol | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 12 |
| 0-5-7 | W-D-L | 3-3-6 |
| 0.42 | Pts / game | 1.00 |
| 0.75 | Goals for / game | 1.08 |
| 1.92 | Goals against / game | 1.17 |
| 42% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 67% | BTTS | 58% |
| 8% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 17% |
| 0-3-3 | Home record | 1-2-3 |
| 0-2-4 | Away record | 2-1-3 |
| L2 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Malaga · Espanyol
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 11.6 | Shots | 12.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.9 | Shots on target | 3.3 |
| 5.1 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 2.77 | Cards | 3.17 |
| 12.1 | Fouls | 14.4 |
| 46 | Possession % | 47 |
| 0.99 | xG | 0.83 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 18.4 | Shots | 14.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.3 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 5.7 | Corners | 6.7 |
| 2.57 | Cards | 3.88 |
| 11.3 | Fouls | 10.4 |
| 54 | Possession % | 53 |
| 1.96 | xG | 1.31 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Malaga | Metric | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| 0.40 | Goals scored | 1.20 (better) |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded | 1.60 (better) |
| 0.75 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.19 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 2.20 | Shots on target | 3.60 (better) |
| 10.40 | Total shots | 14.20 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.00 (better) | Corners | 3.00 |
| 50.8 | Possession % | 51.0 (better) |
| 473 (better) | Passes | 396 |
| Tackles | ||
| 13.40 (better) | Fouls | 16.80 |
| 1.20 (better) | Offsides | 5.33 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.80 | Yellow cards | 2.40 (better) |
| Red cards | 0.33 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Malaga wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Espanyol wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 100%
- Malaga v Espanyol1–12026-10-09
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | +35 | 33 | Barcelona won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | +21 | 30 | Real Madrid won 5 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | +13 | 28 | Atletico Madrid won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 26 | Real Betis won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 22 | Real Sociedad won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 18 | Sevilla won 1 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +4 | 16 | Athletic Club won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | +2 | 15 | Villarreal won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | +1 | 15 | Deportivo La Coruna won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 14 | Racing Santander won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 13 | Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 13 | Alaves won 0 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 12 | Espanyol won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 | Rayo Vallecano won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Getafe | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 12 | Getafe won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 12 | Osasuna won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Levante | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 | Levante won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 10 | Elche won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 9 | Valencia won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 5 | Malaga won 0 of the last 5 |