Mafra v Santa Clara

2–23–2 aet4th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Mafra		Santa Clara
—	Shots	—
—	Shots on target	—
—	Corners	—
—	Fouls	—
—	Yellow cards	—
—	Red cards	—
—	Offsides	—
—	Passes	—
—	Possession %	—
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 48%
Over 3.5: 26%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: Santa Clara 45%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.12 – 1.47

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Mafra	28.0%	3.57	7.00 BetVictor	14.3%	+13.7
Match result	Draw	27.4%	3.64	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+4.4
Match result	Santa Clara	44.5%	2.25	1.55 William Hill	64.5%	-20.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	73.8%	1.35	1.20 Bet365	83.3%	-9.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	26.2%	3.81	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+3.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	47.9%	2.09	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 2.5	52.1%	1.92	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	+6.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	26.2%	3.82	2.88 BetVictor	34.7%	-8.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.8%	1.35	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	+4.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	52.6%	1.90	2.00 William Hill	50.0%	+2.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	47.4%	2.11	2.00 William Hill	50.0%	-2.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Santa Clara favoured against Mafra

Our model makes Mafra 28% to win this Taça de Portugal fixture, with the draw at 27% and Santa Clara at 45%. The goal projection is 1.12 for Mafra against 1.47 for Santa Clara — a clear edge to Santa Clara on expected output. A combined 2.59 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 0-0 8%; 0-2 8%

This season

Season records for Mafra and Santa Clara
Mafra		Santa Clara
3	Played	11
0-3-0	W-D-L	6-3-2
1.00	Pts / game	1.91
1.67	Goals for / game	1.45
1.67	Goals against / game	0.73
67%	Over 2.5	45%
100%	BTTS	45%
0%	Clean sheets	55%
0%	Failed to score	9%
0-2-0	Home record	2-2-2
0-1-0	Away record	4-1-0
D3	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Mafra · Santa Clara

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—	Shots	11.4
—	Shots on target	2.8
—	Corners	3.4
—	Cards	4.25
—	Fouls	14.8
—	Possession %	50
—	xG	0.99
1 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—	Shots	13.2
—	Shots on target	3.2
—	Corners	5.0
—	Cards	3.70
—	Fouls	14.8
—	Possession %	50
—	xG	1.23
1 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Mafra	Metric	Santa Clara
1.60	Goals scored	1.60
1.60	Goals conceded	0.40 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)	1.22
	Big chances
	Shots on target	3.40
	Total shots	13.40
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners	5.20
	Possession %	51.0
	Passes	418
	Tackles
	Fouls	11.80
	Offsides	1.50
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards	3.40
	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Mafra wins: 0
Draws: 1
Santa Clara wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Mafra v Santa Clara2–22026-10-18