Machida Zelvia v 
Gamba Osaka
Match statistics
| Machida Zelvia | Gamba Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Shots | 21 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 10 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 4 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 3 |
| 519 | Passes | 404 |
| 57% | Possession % | 43% |
| 1.34 | xG | 1.37 |
- Over 1.5
- 77%
- Over 2.5
- 52%
- Over 3.5
- 30%
- Both score
- 52%
- Model pick
- Machida Zelvia 56%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.80 – 0.97
Advised bets
Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Gamba Osaka +0.25
Why this price?
Back Gamba Osaka +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 3.42 with Marathonbet — Gamba Osaka starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 36% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 30%; we judge it at 32%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.11. The offered 3.42 implies only 29%, so the price is 9.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.02 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Machida Zelvia 1.80, Gamba Osaka 0.97.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 47.6% | 2.10 | 2.02 Betano | 49.5% | -1.9 |
| Match result | Machida Zelvia | 56.3% | 1.78 | 1.81 Dafabet | 55.2% | +1.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 24.1% | 4.15 | 4.20 Dafabet | 23.8% | +0.3 |
| Match result | Gamba Osaka | 19.6% | 5.10 | 5.60 Dafabet | 17.9% | +1.7 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 76.9% | 1.30 | 1.26 Betano | 79.4% | -2.4 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 23.1% | 4.34 | 4.00 Betfair | 25.0% | -1.9 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 52.4% | 1.91 | 1.87 Betfair | 53.5% | -1.1 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 47.6% | 2.10 | 1.98 Betano | 50.5% | -2.9 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 30.2% | 3.31 | 3.25 Bet365 | 30.8% | -0.6 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 69.8% | 1.43 | 1.38 Betano | 72.5% | -2.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 52.4% | 1.91 | 1.80 Bet365 | 55.6% | -3.1 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Machida Zelvia favoured against Gamba Osaka
Our model makes Machida Zelvia 56% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Gamba Osaka at 20%. The goal projection is 1.80 for Machida Zelvia against 0.97 for Gamba Osaka — a substantial edge to Machida Zelvia on expected output. A combined 2.77 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 1-0 11%
- 2-0 10%
- 2-1 10%
- 0-0 7%
This season
| Machida Zelvia | Gamba Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 14 |
| 8-5-1 | W-D-L | 2-6-6 |
| 2.07 | Pts / game | 0.86 |
| 2.14 | Goals for / game | 1.14 |
| 0.71 | Goals against / game | 1.71 |
| 57% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 50% | BTTS | 57% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 14% |
| 21% | Failed to score | 43% |
| 3-3-1 | Home record | 1-2-3 |
| 5-2-0 | Away record | 1-4-3 |
| D3 | Streak | L1 |
2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. Machida Zelvia · Gamba Osaka
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.3 | Shots | 14.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.7 | Shots on target | 5.7 |
| 5.2 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 1.17 | Cards | 1.50 |
| 10.2 | Fouls | 13.8 |
| 58 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.75 | xG | 1.18 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 15.0 | Shots | 14.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 4.5 |
| 5.3 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 1.00 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 12.3 | Fouls | 10.8 |
| 43 | Possession % | 49 |
| 0.94 | xG | 1.08 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Machida Zelvia | Metric | Gamba Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (better) | Goals scored | 1.80 |
| 0.00 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.60 |
| 2.41 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.42 |
| Big chances | ||
| 7.60 (better) | Shots on target | 5.20 |
| 17.20 (better) | Total shots | 13.40 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.20 (better) | Corners | 4.40 |
| 60.6 (better) | Possession % | 54.2 |
| 533 (better) | Passes | 453 |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.00 (better) | Fouls | 13.20 |
| 1.20 (better) | Offsides | 2.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.20 (better) | Yellow cards | 1.40 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.25 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Machida Zelvia wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Gamba Osaka wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 0.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Machida Zelvia v Gamba Osaka0–02026-11-01
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Tokyo | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | +25 | 33 | FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | +11 | 31 | Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | +22 | 30 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | +20 | 29 | Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | +9 | 27 | Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Kashima | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | +5 | 23 | Kashima won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | +6 | 22 | Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 22 | Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Urawa | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 22 | Urawa won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 17 | Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -9 | 17 | Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Kyoto Sanga | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 16 | Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -8 | 14 | Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Tokyo Verdy | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 14 | Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Shimizu S-pulse | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 14 | Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | V-varen Nagasaki | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 13 | V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | JEF United Chiba | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -8 | 13 | JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -8 | 12 | Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Mito Hollyhock | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -14 | 9 | Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Avispa Fukuoka | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -11 | 8 | Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5 |