Machida Zelvia v Avispa Fukuoka

4th3–020th

07:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Machida Zelvia		Avispa Fukuoka
8	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	1
2	Corners	5
15	Fouls	9
2	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
478	Passes	429
52%	Possession %	48%
1.72	xG	0.76

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 49%

Model pick: Machida Zelvia 57%
Likely score: 1-0 12%
Expected goals: 1.74 – 0.87

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Machida Zelvia	57.5%	1.74	1.90 Dafabet	52.6%	+4.8
Match result	Draw	24.6%	4.07	3.55 Dafabet	28.2%	-3.6
Match result	Avispa Fukuoka	18.0%	5.57	4.75 BetVictor	21.1%	-3.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.1%	1.35	1.36 BetVictor	73.5%	+0.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.9%	3.86	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	-4.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	48.5%	2.06	2.10 Betano	47.6%	+0.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.5%	1.94	1.78 Betano	56.2%	-4.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	26.7%	3.75	3.90 BetVictor	25.6%	+1.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.3%	1.36	1.27 Betano	78.7%	-5.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	48.5%	2.06	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-2.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	51.5%	1.94	1.85 William Hill	54.1%	-2.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Machida Zelvia favoured against Avispa Fukuoka

Our model makes Machida Zelvia 57% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Avispa Fukuoka at 18%. The goal projection is 1.74 for Machida Zelvia against 0.87 for Avispa Fukuoka — a substantial edge to Machida Zelvia on expected output. A combined 2.61 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 12%; 1-1 12%; 2-0 11%; 2-1 10%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Machida Zelvia and Avispa Fukuoka
Machida Zelvia		Avispa Fukuoka
14	Played	14
8-5-1	W-D-L	2-2-10
2.07	Pts / game	0.57
2.14	Goals for / game	1.00
0.71	Goals against / game	1.79
57%	Over 2.5	64%
50%	BTTS	57%
50%	Clean sheets	7%
21%	Failed to score	36%
3-3-1	Home record	2-2-4
5-2-0	Away record	0-0-6
D3	Streak	D1

2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. Machida Zelvia · Avispa Fukuoka

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.3	Shots	10.5
6.7	Shots on target	2.8
5.2	Corners	3.3
1.17	Cards	2.00
10.2	Fouls	13.7
58	Possession %	49
1.75	xG	0.78
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.0	Shots	9.3
5.0	Shots on target	4.0
5.3	Corners	3.5
1.00	Cards	1.50
12.3	Fouls	12.5
43	Possession %	51
0.94	xG	1.05
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Machida Zelvia	Metric	Avispa Fukuoka
1.40 (better)	Goals scored	0.60
1.20	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)	0.48
	Big chances
3.50 (better)	Shots on target	1.67
9.00 (better)	Total shots	5.33
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	3.00
45.5 (better)	Possession %	35.3
421 (better)	Passes	231
	Tackles
9.00 (better)	Fouls	13.00
3.50	Offsides	1.33 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	1.33
1.00	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Machida Zelvia wins: 1
Draws: 0
Avispa Fukuoka wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Machida Zelvia v Avispa Fukuoka3–02026-10-18

J1 League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Tokyo	14	10	3	1	+25	33	FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5
2	Kashiwa Reysol	14	10	1	3	+11	31	Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	14	9	3	2	+22	30	Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5
4	Machida Zelvia	14	8	5	1	+20	29	Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5
5	Vissel Kobe	14	8	3	3	+9	27	Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5
6	Kashima	14	7	2	5	+5	23	Kashima won 2 of the last 5
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	14	5	7	2	+6	22	Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5
8	Kawasaki Frontale	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5
9	Urawa	14	7	1	6	-6	22	Urawa won 3 of the last 5
10	Fagiano Okayama	14	5	2	7	-6	17	Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5
11	Cerezo Osaka	14	4	5	5	-9	17	Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5
12	Kyoto Sanga	14	4	4	6	-4	16	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5
13	Nagoya Grampus	14	4	2	8	-8	14	Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5
14	Tokyo Verdy	14	3	5	6	-10	14	Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5
15	Shimizu S-pulse	14	4	2	8	-13	14	Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5
16	V-varen Nagasaki	14	3	4	7	-5	13	V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5
17	JEF United Chiba	14	3	4	7	-8	13	JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5
18	Gamba Osaka	14	2	6	6	-8	12	Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5
19	Mito Hollyhock	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5
20	Avispa Fukuoka	14	2	2	10	-11	8	Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5