Predicted Edge

Macclesfield v Scarborough Athletic

Macclesfield won 1 of the last 52–2Scarborough Athletic won 1 of the last 3

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Macclesfield Scarborough Athletic
—Shots—
—Shots on target—
—Corners—
—Fouls—
—Yellow cards—
—Red cards—
—Offsides—
—Passes—
—Possession %—
—xG—
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
40%
Both score
64%
Model pick
Macclesfield 44%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.44

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultMacclesfield44.2%2.261.93 Betano51.8%-7.6
Match resultDraw24.4%4.093.80 Bet36526.3%-1.9
Match resultScarborough Athletic31.4%3.194.75 Betfair21.1%+10.3
Total goalsOver 1.583.4%1.201.30 BetVictor76.9%+6.4
Total goalsUnder 1.516.6%6.014.10 BetVictor24.4%-7.8
Total goalsOver 2.561.8%1.621.80 Bet36555.6%+6.2
Total goalsUnder 2.538.2%2.622.05 BetVictor48.8%-10.6
Total goalsOver 3.539.5%2.532.75 BetVictor36.4%+3.2
Total goalsUnder 3.560.5%1.651.40 BetVictor71.4%-10.9
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes63.7%1.571.70 BetVictor58.8%+4.9
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No36.3%2.752.15 BetVictor46.5%-10.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Macclesfield favoured against Scarborough Athletic

Our model makes Macclesfield 44% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 24% and Scarborough Athletic at 31%. The goal projection is 1.75 for Macclesfield against 1.44 for Scarborough Athletic — a clear edge to Macclesfield on expected output. A combined 3.19 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 9%
1-2 7%
1-0 7%
2-2 7%

This season

Season records for Macclesfield and Scarborough Athletic
Macclesfield Scarborough Athletic
6Played3
2-3-1W-D-L1-2-0
1.50Pts / game1.67
1.50Goals for / game1.67
1.33Goals against / game1.00
67%Over 2.533%
67%BTTS67%
17%Clean sheets33%
17%Failed to score0%
0-2-0Home record0-1-0
2-1-1Away record1-1-0
L1StreakD2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Macclesfield · Scarborough Athletic

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.0Shots10.0
5.3Shots on target3.0
5.0Corners8.0
2.33Cards1.00
10.0Fouls—
50Possession %45
—xG—
4 matchessample2 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.7Shots16.0
4.3Shots on target8.0
7.0Corners6.0
1.33Cards4.00
8.0Fouls—
50Possession %55
—xG—
4 matchessample2 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
MacclesfieldMetricScarborough Athletic
1.00 (better)Goals scored0.60
0.80Goals conceded0.40 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target
Total shots
Touches in opp. box
Corners
Possession %
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
Yellow cards
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Macclesfield wins
0
Draws
2
Scarborough Athletic wins
0
Goals / game
3.00
Over 2.5
50%
Both score
100%