Lyngby won 1 of the last 5LWLDL10th3–3FC Nordsjaelland won 1 of the last 5WLDDD4th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Lyngby
FC Nordsjaelland
16
Shots
17
10
Shots on target
8
1
Corners
7
18
Fouls
16
3
Yellow cards
6
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
3
306
Passes
538
38%
Possession %
62%
2.18
xG
2.53
19%
23%
58%
1 · LyngbyXFC Nordsjaelland · 2
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
33%
Both score
54%
Model pick
FC Nordsjaelland 58%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.91
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Lyngby
18.8%
5.33
4.20 Bet365
23.8%
-5.0
Match result
Draw
23.3%
4.29
4.05 Betano
24.7%
-1.4
Match result
FC Nordsjaelland
57.9%
1.73
1.98 Betano
50.5%
+7.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
79.3%
1.26
1.17 Betano
85.5%
-6.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
20.7%
4.82
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
+2.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
55.5%
1.80
1.52 Betano
65.8%
-10.2
Total goals
Under 2.5
44.5%
2.25
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
+6.4
Total goals
Over 3.5
33.2%
3.02
2.50 Bet365
40.0%
-6.8
Total goals
Under 3.5
66.8%
1.50
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
+6.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
54.4%
1.84
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
-12.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
45.6%
2.19
2.55 BetVictor
39.2%
+6.4
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
FC Nordsjaelland favoured against Lyngby
Our model makes Lyngby 19% to win this Danish Superliga fixture, with the draw at 23% and FC Nordsjaelland at 58%. The goal projection is 1.00 for Lyngby against 1.91 for FC Nordsjaelland — a commanding edge to FC Nordsjaelland on expected output. A combined 2.91 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Lyngby
Metric
FC Nordsjaelland
1.60 (better)
Goals scored
1.20
1.80
Goals conceded
1.40 (better)
1.24
Expected goals (xG)
2.09 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
2.67
Shots on target
3.33 (better)
10.67
Total shots
18.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.00 (better)
Corners
5.33
47.3
Possession %
53.7 (better)
441
Passes
578 (better)
—
Tackles
—
14.33
Fouls
11.00 (better)
1.00 (better)
Offsides
1.67
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00 (better)
Yellow cards
2.33
1.00
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Lyngby v 
FC Nordsjaelland